Jefferies Comments on P3 Data for Bapineuzumab

Jefferies & Company has published a research report on Elan Corporation ELN commenting on potential FDA approval of bapineuzumab. In the report, Jefferies writes, "ELN should now start to move in front of the bapineuzumab P3 data (we guess July). We find Tysabri alone worth $12-16, supporting our "buy bapi for free" call. We find few who think bapi will succeed, suggesting there is little in the stock. We project a 75% chance for FDA approval (which doesn't necessarily mean we think both trials will hit both co-primary endpoints). While it remains unclear if J&J (JNJ, $65.03, Hold) will present data at AAIC (July 14-19), it's hard for us to imagine why it would not do so (unless of course, the full analysis is not ready by then). Since the carrier study has been completed since June 2010, the only gating factor remains the noncarrier study and our guess is last-patientlast-visit is this spring." Jefferies maintains its Buy rating and $20 price target on Elan, which closed yesterday at $13.79.