Deutsche Bank On U.S. Autos & Parts

Deutsche Bank has published a research report on U.S. Autos and Auto Parts reporting December mid-month survey that points of a 4Q SAAR of 12.2MM. In the report, Deutsche Bank writes "Based on our mid-month channel checks, we estimate that the U.S. light vehicle SAAR is tracking at 12.2MM in December (+12.1% YOY on a unit sales basis, adj'd for one less selling day); in-line with the October/November SAAR of 12.2MM (and compared to Dec '09 of 11.2MM SAAR). The 4Q10 SAAR appears to be tracking at approximately 12.2MM units. Industry contacts also appear increasing confident in the pace of the industry sales recovery. Over the first three quarters of 2010, the SAAR consistently grew 250k-300k units sequentially per quarter (4Q09: 10.8MM / 1Q10: 10.95MM / 2Q10: 11.3MM / 3Q10: 11.55MM). A 4Q10 SAAR of 12.2MM would represent a 650k sequential increase, which could indicate a steepening of the U.S. demand recovery. Adjusted for selling days, we expect Ford / Chrysler YOY sales to be +8.9% / +16.1% and market shares to be 16.6% / 8.7%. We expect Toyota / Honda / Nissan sales to be -3% / +18.2% / +16.1% and market shares to be 15.8% / 11.0% / 7.4%. We expect a retail SAAR in the high 9MM unit range, consistent with October and November retail SAAR levels. Fleet appears to be tracking at 19%-20% of the industry this month." Companies related to this report include: Ford Motor

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