Eli Lilly's Core Product Trends For The Week Ending 9/24

Citigroup has published a research report for Eli Lilly LLY reporting on core product trends for the week ending on 9/24. In the report, Citigroup writes " Effient: 2.7% NRx's of Plavix Market; We Assume 2010 US Sales of $100M. Effient weekly NRx/TRx of 5,691 (+3% seq.)/13,578(+2%) vs.Plavix at 203,096 (+3%) /665,533(+1%). Effient is flat priced at $5.40/day (at a modest premium to Plavix [$5.38/day] after BMY/SNY took a 4.9% price increase in Sept '10).  Livalo: Quarter to date TRx/NRx was 16.9k/14.3k; TRx share in the week was 0.06%.Livalo 1/2/3mg are flat price at $3.27/day,a discount to branded statins.  Cymbalta: $2.2B Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Avg. TRx's. Our model assumes 2010 US sales of $2.7B (+7%). Cymbalta posted weekley NRx/TRx of 159,393(+1%)/366,820(-0%); 9.8%(-3bp) TRx share of the depression market. Rolling 4week/12week NRx growth rates were +0%/+2%; TRx growth rates were +1%/+0%.LLY took a 8% Cymbalta PI on 9/3/10, w/ 30mg/60mg flat priced at $4.61/day. FDA action on chronic pain sNDA expected in 4Q10.  Zyprexa: 10.7%(-3bp)TRx Share of Antipsychotic Mkt. We assume ‘10 US sales of $2.4B. Zyprexa posted weekly NRx/TRx of 50,779(-1%)/113,979(-1%). Rolling 4wk/12wk NRx growth rates were -3%/-2% & TRx growth rates were - 1%/-2%. Zyprexa is priced at a WAC of $7.82(2.5mg/day) to$27.80(20mg/day) after an 8% PI on 3/2/10. FDA approved Zyprexa Relprevv 12/14/09; VNDA's Fanapt launched 1/11 at $17.33/day; MRK's Saphris on 10/19 at $16.34 / day.  Byetta: ~$510M Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Avg. TRx's Vs. Our Model Which Assumes '10 US Sales of $607M. Byetta posted weekly NRx/TRx of 17,723 (+2%)/45,685 (-2%). Rolling 4wk/12wk NRx growth was -24%/-18% & TRx growth rates were -25%/-24%. Byetta is priced at WAC of $219.39/ $257.20 for 5/10mcg pens after an 8% PI on the 10mcg pen. LLY/AMLN's PDUFA for Bydureon (exenatide once weekly) is 10/22/2010. Bydureon is expected to carry a new/separate label from Byetta with DURATION 1 & 2 data & a price premium to NVO's Victoza. NVO's Victoza is expanding the GLP-1 mkt w/ NRx/TRx of 11,720(-3%)/21,730(-2%) & NRx/TRx share of 39.8%/32.2%. Victoza18mg/3ml 2&3 pack pens are priced at $238.39&$357.59, respectively.  Humalog: 42.9% (-16bp) TRx Share of Fast-Acting Insulin Analogs; Humulin: 56.4%(-18bp) TRx Share of Human Insulins. Our model assumes '10 US sales of $1.3B(+5%)/$440M(+10%) for Humalog/Humulin. Humalog posted weekly NRx/TRx of 58,161(+0%)/147,329(-2%). Humulin posted weekly NRx/TRx of 38,713(-1%)/103,688(-3%). Rolling 4wk/12wk NRx growth rates were +3%/+4% for Humalog and -6%/-3% for Humulin. LLY's insulin franchise represents ~14% of‘10-13 incremental adj. sales. Humalog-KWIK/Humulin 5x3 ml pens are flat priced at a WAC of $205.77 / $154.58, respectively." Citigroup maintains its Buy rating and $41 price target. Eli Lilly closed yesterday at $36.89. Don't miss these trading ideas!