TJ Maxx Parent Company Benefits From Off-Price Retail, Despite Consumer Caution: Analyst

Telsey analyst Dana Telsey maintained an Outperform rating on TJX Companies, Inc. TJX with a price forecast of $145 following the company’s first-quarter results, which were reported before the market opened today.

Sales rose 5% year-over-year (Y/Y) to $13.1 billion, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $13 billion. Adjusted EPS of 92 cents beat the consensus estimate of 90 cents.

TJX reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2026 comparable sales growth of 2% – 3% and EPS of $4.34-$4.43 against a $4.49 estimate.

The company expects second-quarter comparable sales growth of 2%—3% and EPS of $0.97-$1.00, with an estimate of $1.03.

For the full-year FY26, the company expects to offset the significant and ongoing tariff-related financial pressures fully.

The analyst writes that the company delivered another strong quarterly performance, driven by strong operational execution and healthy sales, although the gross margin was slightly below expectations.

The analyst believes that the company’s consistent earnings outperformance underscores the appeal of its value-oriented model, which remains attractive to increasingly price-conscious consumers.

Moreover, the favorable environment for off-price retail continues to support TJX in meeting customer demand and maintaining strong store traffic, adds the analyst.

Going forward, Telsey anticipates that TJX to keep expanding its profitable market share, backed by stable comparable sales growth and ongoing strategic store openings.

Given the modest earnings beat and reaffirmed full-year outlook, the analyst sees no material change in the positive trajectory of the company's performance, which is an encouraging sign amid broader economic uncertainty.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Retail ETF RTH and iShares U.S. Consumer Focused ETF IEDI.

Price Action: TJX shares are down 2.69% at $131.30 at the last check on Wednesday.

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