China Trade War: 4 Big-Brand Stocks That Will Suffer Most

The average tariff rate on Chinese goods entering the United States is currently over 145%, far higher than anything President Donald Trump introduced during his first term and a rate that already has severe economic effects.

While many companies opened their pocketbooks to stock up on extra merchandise to avoid tariffs, those stockpiles will dwindle in a few months, and consumers will feel the brunt of the added costs. Apparel manufacturers and retailers that source large portions of their products from China or other Asian countries will be most affected.

With tight margins, passing on costs to consumers or moving production back to the U.S. is not an option for most of them. 

Here are the four big-brand apparel companies that will be worst hit – investors beware.

V.F. Corp. 

VF Corp. VFC cut its dividend by 71% during an October 2023 earnings release, but that was just the tip of the iceberg for the apparel manufacturer that claims popular brands like Timberland, Vans, North Face, JanSport, and Dickie's. The stock was trading near $90 per share in the spring of 2021 and suffered a stunning decline over the next three years, bottoming out under $13 per share amid sales slumps and competition from cheaper online competitors. The stock was beginning to rebound from its May 2024 lows, but then the trade war hit, and shares slumped from $26 back down to under $11.

VFC is not well-equipped to handle an extensive trade war, considering the bulk of its production comes from Asia. The company has over 400 factories in China and another 200 in Vietnam but fewer than 50 locations in the United States. Moving production back to the U.S. is untenable, so the VFC will need to seek out sites in nations with lower tariff rates, like India. VFC trades at 11 times forward earnings, which is on the high side for apparel manufacturers, especially considering its close competitor, PVH Corp, trades at just 5 times forward earnings. The company also has a high debt-to-equity ratio (3.42), declining revenue, and poor Benzinga Edge ratings, including a paltry 16.94 in Value. VFC may have brand value, but this is one falling knife not worth catching right now.

Columbia Sportswear Co. 

Columbia COLM is another apparel company specializing in footwear and outerwear with a heavy manufacturing presence in Asia. Marketing mostly under its namesake flagship brand, Columbia was already losing market share as its sales primarily come through wholesale distribution to department and sporting goods stores. And while its products are sold worldwide, the primary manufacturing hubs are in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Taiwan. Although the company has significant operations in Japan, India, and Bangladesh, surviving a tariff war without further damage will be difficult due to declining margins and a valuation that doesn't match the fundamentals.

COLM trades at 16.5 times forward earnings, far higher than most apparel manufacturers, and a figure not supported by profit margins that have now dropped under 7%. Revenue has declined in four of the last five quarters, and the dividend yields just 1.87%. COLM also rates poorly on Benzinga Edge, including a 29.11 Momentum score and 39.30 Quality score. The stock chart matches these scores as a Death Cross (where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average) formed earlier this month. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the oversold threshold at 37, indicating that the stock may still have room to drop.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. 

American Eagle AEO used to be a staple in every suburban mall, but now the brand has fallen in both stature and profitability. American Eagle owns both its namesake brand and the more affordable Aerie brand, although it doesn't own any of the factories around the world where its clothes are produced. The company sources its goods from a global array of facilities, including 101 factories in China, 67 in Vietnam, 39 in India, 27 in Cambodia, and 24 in Bangladesh. Although the company has other sources in Central America and Europe, most of its suppliers reside in Asia, which presents a problem in the current tariff environment.

AEO's valuation makes it look tempting to buy, but investors should be cautious due to the company’s heavy reliance on Asian facilities it does not own. AEO shares trade at just 7.4 times forward earnings with a 0.36 Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio, but its profit margins are lower than those of competitors like Abercrombie and Fitch and Urban Outfitters. The stock hasn't traded above its 200-day moving average since last October, and it is one of the most heavily shorted apparel retailers, with nearly 19% of its float sold short.

Levi Strauss and Co. 

Levi Strauss LEVI makes arguably the world's most famous pair of jeans, but unfortunately, those jeans are manufactured in areas facing heavy tariffs. The company's factory list spans a wider geographic range than Columbia or VF Corp, but the Asian presence is heavy, especially in China, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Its only locations in the United States are in Los Angeles. 

Unlike Columbia or VF Corp, Levi's saw its revenue and margins rebound from the lows of 2024. In February, it posted its first profit margin of over 5% since May 2023, and revenue grew for the third consecutive quarter. However, the company still faces headwinds beyond tariffs, as LEVI shares trade at 11.6 times forward earnings with a high Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 3.01. Its dividend payout ratio (DPR) is also over 58%, an elevated figure for an apparel manufacturer. Benzinga Edge is not fond of the stock either, ranking it 25.66 in Momentum and 60.95 in Growth. And finally, the stock is trading firmly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a technical signal pointing to more downside momentum.

Matt Maley Alerts Inner Circle Before TV Appearances

While millions watch Matt discuss tariffs on Bloomberg, CNBC, and more — only his Inner Circle members received his specific trade recommendations. Get Behind the Scenes Access HERE

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