March 4, 2011 Forex Forecast

EUR/USD

We finally had the sustained move above 1.38 yesterday that we were looking for. Also mentioned yesterday was the idea that the pair was heading towards 1.40 in a short manner. It fell only 21 pips short of that number on Thursday, and all signs look to be for Euro strength.

The chart looks like we will see some resistance at 1.40, and could even pullback to 1.38 for another attempt to break through that number. Any break below 1.38 would be a bearish sign, and could see a fall to 1.36 and even 1.3450 before it's all said and done. However, this pair looks like it wants to climb above 1.40 and go north from here.

EUR/JPY

The Euro against the Yen has slammed up against the 115 level, which is major support and resistance. The Thursday candle is very bullish. With Mr. Trichet, the head Central Banker out of the ECB suggesting at higher interest rates in the near future, the Euro suddenly becomes interesting against many currencies with the Yen being no different.

Once we have a daily break above 115, the suggested move by the height of the consolidation is at least 500 pips, and as much as 800. The first target will be 120. Any failure at this point would suggest more consolidation in the near future.

USD/CHF

Dollar – Swiss has been consolidating just under the 0.93 level, and we have retested that area again on Thursday. The support is at 0.92, and any break of either of these levels would show the way forward for this pair. It should be noted that shorts are preferred, and longs should have protective stops nearby in case of sudden downward moves. The preferred short trade will be signaled on a break and sustained candle below the 0.92 handle.