Strongly Rising VIX Suggests Increasing Bearish Sentiment

Summary: A high and strongly rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment--which is bullish, according to the Art of Contrary Thinking.

The Dow-Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42% and closed below previous 7-month lows. But the Dow-Jones Transportation Average tested 4-month lows and closed 0.36% higher. The Transports have been failing to confirm weakness in the Industrials to the same degree.

The Dow-Jones Utility Average held above June lows.

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line is still holding above its early June low.

NYSE Bullish Percent Index is holding above early June lows.

S&P 500 Composite broke fell 0.32% and broke down below 9-month lows on 7/1/10. Price momentum oscillators, such as RSI , MACD, Directional Movement, and McClellan Oscillator, are more deeply oversold--but not quite as oversold as they were a few weeks ago, thereby showing bullish divergence.

NASDAQ Composite fell 0.37% and broke down below 7-month lows on 7/1/10.

Sentiment is more bearish. VIX Fear Index jumped up to 37.58 on 7/1/10, up from 22.87 on 6/21/10. A high and strongly rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment.

The following major Stock Sectors fell below multi-month lows on 7/1/10: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Industrial, Technology, Health Care, Financial, Materials, and Energy.

Crude Oil broke down below 3-week lows on 7/1/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the short term.

Gold broke down below 5-week lows on 7/1/10, thereby signaling a bearish trend for the short term.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio fell sharply this week. The Ratio remains technically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.

Copper broke below 8-day lows on 7/1/10, confirming a price pullback for the short-tem. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about prospects for the world economy.

U.S. Treasury Bond price rose further above 14-month highs on 7/1/10, again confirming a major uptrend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio fell below 9-month lows on 7/1/10 and is RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down below 7-week lows on 7/1/10. The USD chart appears bearish for the short term.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.84% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
2.45% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
7.11% , PWER , POWER ONE
2.90% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
6.36% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
2.83% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
1.65% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
1.19% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.28% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.15% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
2.09% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
2.65% , MTB , M&T BANK
0.99% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
2.14% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
2.50% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.20% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
2.05% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
0.85% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.43% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.36% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.90% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
1.60% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.54% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
0.70% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.26% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.70% , FDX , FEDEX
0.63% , SWH , Software H, SWH
2.74% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
1.06% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
4.55% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
1.33% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.43% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.38% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
1.18% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.72% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.29% , LEN , Lennar Corp.
1.41% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
5.34% , NE , NOBLE
2.46% , NOVL , NOVELL
1.16% , MDP , MEREDITH

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.81% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-4.23% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.72% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-4.16% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-3.78% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.91% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-3.81% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.00% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-0.85% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-0.53% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.54% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-1.05% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.46% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-1.20% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-0.71% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-4.95% , SUN , SUNOCO
-1.13% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-3.86% , CI , CIGNA
-0.84% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-2.21% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-1.43% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-2.58% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-3.84% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
-4.16% , KEY , KEYCORP
-2.33% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.60% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.38% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.06% , UIS , UNISYS
-2.57% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-2.24% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-0.37% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-0.84% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.44% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-0.98% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-3.95% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.68% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-1.60% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-2.81% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-3.54% , TXT , TEXTRON
-0.51% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/17/10, thereby turning neutral. XLY/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY fell below 4-month lows intraday on 7/1/10. Support 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Consumer Staples Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio has performed about in-line with the broader market for the past 7-months and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP fell below 8-month lows intraday on 7/1/10. Support 24.95. Resistance 26.97, 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Industrial Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio is stuck between 50- and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLI fell below 4-month lows intraday on 7/1/10. Support 27.37 and 26.66. Resistance 30.60, 33.12, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Technology Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs on 6/30/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price fell below 8-month lows intraday on 7/1/10. Support 20.57 and 20.09. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Utilities Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above 5-month highs on 6/30/10. The XLU/SPY Ratio’s 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA, however, so the XLU/SPY remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU fell below 5-week lows intraday on 7/1/10.. Support 27.44, 25.76. Resistance 30.39, 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.

Health Care Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio rose above the highs of the previous 3 months on 6/30/10. The XLV/SPY Ratio’s 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA, however, so the XLV/SPY remains neutral. Absolute price of XLV fell below 11-month lows intraday on 7/1/10 and remains bearish because price is below both SMAs and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Support 27.96. Resistance 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Financial Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell sharply over the past 4 trading days and is now bearish . Absolute price of XLF fell below 11-month lows intraday on 7/1/10 and remains neutral. Support 13.70 and 13.51. Resistance 15.05, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Materials Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell below 14-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB fell below 11-month lows intraday on 7/1/10 and remains bearish with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA of price since 6/18/10. Support 28.53 and 27.78. Resistance 31.80, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.

Energy Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio fell further below its 50-day SMA on 6/29/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE fell below 10-month lows intraday on 7/1/10 and remains bearish with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 46.16 and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio has been rising since its low on 5/20/10 but remains neutral. Absolute price of EEM has stabilized since its low on 5/25/10 but remains bearish due to negative SMA relationships.

Foreign Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio has been rising since its low on 5/26/10 but remains neutral. Absolute price of EFA has stabilized since its low on 5/25/10 but remains bearish due to negative SMA relationships.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio is neutral between 50- and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price fell below 7-month lows on 7/1/10.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio turned bullish on 6/25/10 by rising above its 50-day SMA.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio turned neutral on 7/1/10 when it rose above its 50-day SMA.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio turned neural when it fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/29/10.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 30 years on 6/15/10 and remains bearish. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio remains neutral, fluctuating between 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio remains neutral but is very close to a bullish signal. Absolute price of MDY closed below its 200 SMA on 6/29/10 and remains neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract broke down below 3-week lows on 7/1/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the short term. Support 70.93, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 79.38, 79.94, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract broke down below 5-week lows on 7/1/10, thereby signaling a bearish trend for the short term. Support 1196.9, 1168.0, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio fell sharply this week. The Ratio remains technically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.

Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA already below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price broke below 8-day lows on 7/1/10, confirming a price pullback for the short-tem. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about prospects for the world economy. Support 2.8445 and 2.72. Resistance 3.106, 3.187, 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose further above 14-month highs on 7/1/10, again confirming a major uptrend. Support 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 130.31, 133.20, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio declined most days since 6/21/10 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio fell below 9-month lows on 7/1/10 and is RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down below 7-week lows on 7/1/10. The USD chart appears bearish for the short term. Support 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 41.1% Bulls versus 33.3% Bears as of 6/30/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to1.23, down from 1.32 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index jumped up to 37.58 on 7/1/10, up from 22.87 on 6/21/10. A high and strongly rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index jumped up to 38.29 on 7/1/10, up from 23.12 on 6/18/10. A high and strongly rising VXN suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite fell 0.32%, breaking below 9-month lows on 7/1/10. Price momentum oscillators, such as RSI , MACD, Directional Movement, and McClellan Oscillator, are more deeply oversold--but not quite as oversold as they were a few weeks ago, thereby showing bullish divergence. Sentiment is more bearish. Therefore, there is still a chance for an oversold bounce. Support 1008.55, 991.97, 978.51, 956.23, and 943.29. Resistance 1040.78, 1131.23, 1173.57, and 1219.80.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1040.78, low of 5/25/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

4.68% Spain Index, EWP
2.90% Italy Index, EWI
2.62% Austria Index, EWO
2.45% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.36% Belgium Index, EWK
2.16% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.99% European VIPERs, VGK
1.84% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.84% France Index, EWQ
1.71% Germany Index, EWG
1.69% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.63% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.46% EAFE Index, EFA
1.31% Sweden Index, EWD
1.26% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.20% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.19% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.06% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.06% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.00% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.99% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.85% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.83% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.82% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.80% Dividend International, PID
0.72% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.64% China 25 iS, FXI
0.61% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.61% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.52% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.45% South Korea Index, EWY
0.44% Singapore Index, EWS
0.44% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.43% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.39% Global 100, IOO
0.38% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.36% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.36% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.35% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.33% Japan Index, EWJ
0.25% South Africa Index, EZA
0.22% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.21% Energy Global, IXC
0.20% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.20% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.16% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.12% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.11% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.09% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.05% Australia Index, EWA
-0.02% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.04% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.05% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.06% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.08% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.09% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.12% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.13% India PS, PIN
-0.15% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.16% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.18% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.18% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.19% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.20% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.21% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.23% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.24% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.24% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.25% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.26% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.28% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.29% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.30% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.30% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.30% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.31% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.33% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.34% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.34% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.35% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.36% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.38% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.39% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.40% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.40% DIAMONDS , DIA
-0.40% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.41% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.41% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.43% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.43% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.44% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.44% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.45% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.45% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.46% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.47% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.52% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.53% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.54% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.56% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.58% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.60% Water Resources, PHO
-0.60% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.61% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.64% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.64% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.66% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.68% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.68% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.69% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.70% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.71% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.71% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.72% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.72% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.72% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.74% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.76% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.79% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.81% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.83% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.84% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.84% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.85% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.89% Networking, IGN
-0.91% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.94% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.00% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.05% Canada Index, EWC
-1.09% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.43% Russia MV, RSX
-1.53% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.33% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.21% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.81% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-4.23% Silver Trust iS, SLV