Box Office Momentum Pushes Cinemark Past Forecasts, Says Analyst

JP Morgan analyst David Karnovsky reiterated an Overweight rating on the shares of Cinemark Holdings, Inc. CNK on Monday and raised the price forecast from $34.00 to $35.00.

Cinemark's first-quarter performance topped expectations, delivering $541 million in revenue and $36 million in adjusted EBITDA, ahead of consensus estimates of $524 million and $34 million, respectively.

Compared to the analyst’s forecast of $515 million in revenue and $26 million in EBITDA, the outperformance was driven across key metrics, including higher attendance, improved per-patron spending, and additional revenue streams.

On the expense side, results were mostly aligned with forecasts, though concession costs came in above projections. Management attributed this to a higher mix of merchandise in what is typically a lighter quarter, with costs expected to normalize going forward.

Also Read: Wall Street Reacts As Airbnb Eyes Growth Amid US Slowdown

Looking ahead, the company increased its 2025 wide-release film forecast to 120, up from 115, matching the analyst’s current projection.

Cinemark also expressed greater optimism for 2026, spotlighting Amazon MGM's CinemaCon participation and its potential to debut as many as 14 films in theaters that year, compared to just four expected in 2025.

On broader economic trends, Cinemark reiterated that box office demand had shown little historical sensitivity to economic conditions and reported no noticeable impact on per-capita spending or premium large-format attendance.

The 2025 North American box office forecast has been revised upward to $9.523 billion, marking an 11.1% year-over-year increase, driven by stronger-than-expected second-quarter projections.

Karnovsky’s projections for 2025 have been updated, with revenue now expected to reach $3.374 billion and adjusted EBITDA forecast at $674 million.

The outlook reflects a 6.4% rise in domestic theater attendance and a 3% bump in ticket prices, slightly reducing market share to 14.2%.

Karnovsky noted that the second quarter is anticipated to see a 14.4% market share, pressured by competition from Inside Out 2 and capacity constraints, though partially offset by a strong lineup of family and horror titles.

Price Action: CNK shares traded lower by 3.53% at $29.23 at last check on Monday.

Read Next: What’s Going On With Lucid Group Stock On Monday?

Photo: Shutterstock