Trading Around The Unemployment Report

The market is down big on the jobs report this morning. Not only did we miss on the jobs report numbers, most of the new jobs that were created were temporary census workers anyways.

To read this entire report with charts click here

The really interesting thing and dare I say disappointing thing about this miss is both Obama and Biden had hinted that the jobs number would beat estimates. In two different speeches they had both come out and hinted we would beat, causing shorts to start covering their positions and causing buyers to step up and start buying. The instant everyone saw what the numbers really were, they gave back all those gains.

DOW

If you look at the chart of the Dow and the S&P 500 you can see we were once again turned away at that 200 day moving average level. This was why our new entries from Thursday were listed and extremely high risk entries. The good news is we are off the lows of the morning and so far the NASDAQ is still trading above its 200 day moving average. If we can somehow get a rally off these lows here today allowing us to finish strong, this would be a very positive signal that the market is getting ready to rally. The problem is the market has been so bearish that we expect to see a further slide lower versus a rally higher but that’s just a guess. We don’t trade off of guesses and will only act if the market gives us confirmation first.
S&P 500 turned away at the 200 day moving average

NASDAQ is still holding support

The other really negative action we are seeing is in the EURO. The EUR/USD is about to hit new lows and is close to breaking the $1.20 level

The European crisis is not over and the credit spreads are saying things are still getting worse but are far from where the credit spreads were during our banking crisis which makes us feel ok over the short term.

Bottom line no reason to trade here.  Keeping all losses small and position sizes smaller

Thanks,

www.globalchartanalysis.com