Will Costco Beat Q1 Expectations? What Investors Need To Know

Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST) is set to report its fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings after the closing bell Thursday, with investors closely watching for updates on consumer spending and the retailer’s aggressive legal stance on trade tariffs. Here’s what investors need to know.

• Costco Wholesale stock is showing downward pressure. What’s the outlook for COST shares?

What To Know: Costco shares are trading flat Thursday morning, reflecting a broader trend for the stock, which analysts note has “virtually gone nowhere this last year” and is currently down year-to-date.

Wall Street expects the warehouse giant to report first-quarter revenue of $67.17 billion, up from $62.15 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per share are projected to rise to $4.28 from $3.82.

While Costco beat expectations in its fourth-quarter report with robust comparable sales growth of 5.7%, recent sentiment has been tempered by uncertainty.

JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers recently lowered his price target to $1,025, maintaining an Overweight rating but flagging that November U.S. core sales were “softer than expected.”

Telsey Advisory Group's Joseph Feldman recently maintained an Outperform rating with a $1,100 target, citing Costco's strong execution despite the operating environment.

A key topic on the earnings call will likely be tariffs. Costco recently filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade challenging the legality of new tariffs, warning of potential margin pressures.

Why Tariffs Matter: Unlike traditional retailers that operate with gross margins of 30% or higher, Costco's business model is uniquely fragile in a high-tariff environment due to its rigid internal pricing caps. The company historically limits markups to roughly 14% for brand-name goods and 15% for its private-label Kirkland Signature items.

This razor-thin buffer means Costco cannot easily absorb tariff hikes without immediately passing that cost to members, directly threatening the value proposition on imported discretionary goods like electronics and apparel.

Benzinga Edge Rankings: Benzinga Edge data highlights a sharp divergence in the retailer’s fundamentals, pairing a weak 21.89 Momentum Score with a robust 94.88 Growth Score.

COST Price Action: Costco Wholesale shares were up 0.14% at $875.87 at the time of publication on Thursday. The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $871.09, according to Benzinga Pro data.

From a technical perspective, Costco is trading approximately 4.5% below its 50-day moving average of $917.68 and about 8.6% below its 200-day moving average of $958.94.

These indicators highlight a bearish trend, as the stock remains significantly below both key moving averages, suggesting a lack of buying interest in the near term.

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