Cruise Wars: Carnival Rides Momentum, While Norwegian Plays The Long Game

It's been smooth sailing for Carnival Corp CCL in recent months, while rival Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH is still navigating choppy waters.

However, according to JPMorgan analyst Matthew R. Boss, 2026 could be the year Norwegian flips the script.

What’s Been Driving Carnival’s 20% Bullish Streak?

Carnival stock has surged over 20% in the past month and is up nearly 47% year-over-year. The company continues outperforming thanks to strong booking trends, disciplined pricing, and a Europe-focused strategy that's paying off. CEO Josh Weinstein is steering Carnival with a clear focus on yield optimization, margin expansion, and cost discipline. The launch of Celebration Key in the third quarter and over six quarters of margin improvement are fueling bullish sentiment.

Boss highlights Carnival's balance sheet progress as another catalyst, noting the company could hit its investment-grade leverage target ahead of schedule – potentially unlocking share buybacks or dividends down the line.

Read Also: Premium Travel Demand Gives Airlines, Hotels And Cruises An Edge in 2025: Goldman Sachs

Down, But Not Out – What’s Behind Norwegian’s 40% Potential Upside?

Meanwhile, Norwegian shares have lagged, down over 24% year-to-date despite a 10% rebound in the last month. Still, JPMorgan is sticking with its Overweight rating and a $28 price target – suggesting over 40% upside from here. The firm hosted Norwegian's top execs in Miami and came away with cautious optimism.

CFO Mark Kempa acknowledged soft demand in the third quarter, especially for longer European itineraries, but emphasized a return to healthy booking levels. More importantly, Norwegian sees a clear path to recapturing occupancy and yield growth by FY26. Management aims for 104.9% occupancy next year – well above current levels – paired with a greater mix of higher-yielding 7-day cruises.

Luxury brands Regent and Oceania are other long-term levers, with new leadership aiming to boost margins to peer levels. Norwegian is tightening up behind the scenes on the cost front without touching the guest experience – an approach that’s already lifting satisfaction scores.

Carnival may be the current winner of the cruise wars, but Norwegian isn't out of the race. JPMorgan sees a compelling setup for long-term investors willing to wait for smoother seas in 2026.

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