Top Callers Are Out In Force

They are out there again.  The top callers, the ones who say 'this is the big one, get ready for the downside'.  Like flies drawn to a light, the bears are giddy once again.  But as we know, the bearish calls over the last few years have been tough to read.  As hard as it may be to make money in the stock market to the upside, it's even tougher to make money as the markets are falling.

We know that calling tops and bottoms is truly a losers game.  It happens all the time, a prognosticator claiming to have the 'inside info' or some technical tool that is flashing this 'rare sell signal'.  The truth is, market tops are process and not an event. So if someone were to tell me a market top is coming next week with all of the evidence to support it, I simply have to laugh and turn away.  

The market is always making a top, just look at any chart with a progression of higher highs and higher lows. Bottom left to the upper right. It's the last top that is most meaningful, and it's very difficult to predict that moment. Instead, we let the market tell us what the message is rather than telling it what to do (basically that is what you are doing when you are picking a top).  

Recently in financial media some prominent technicians were sounding the alarm bells.  Time to get OUT of the market before it falls, heed the warning! Of course, their 'bells' have been ringing for months but when you can step on the bully pulpit and express your views, maybe some will listen.

So while some chinks may be seen in the armor (poor breadth, R2K weakness, higher put/call ratios), the biggest and most important indicator of them all - price action - has not signaled the end of the world just yet.  The market won't lie to you, it won't fool you (most times), it doesn't care what positions you are carrying.  Just pay attention to the market and not the top callers and you'll find yourself on the right side of the market far more often than not.