Q4 2016 Real-Time Call Brief

Brief Report
Ticker : CCE
Company : Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc
Event Name : Q4 2016 Earnings Call
Event Date : Mar 21,2017
Event Time : 10:00 AM

Highlights



We are very happy to say on track to deliver synergy targets, which include a pre-tax goal of between EUR315 million to EUR340 million by mid-2019.


Our results include pro-forma comparable diluted earnings per share of EUR1.92.


This reflects 1% revenue growth and 0.5% volume growth and 5% growth in operating profit.


Sparkling brands grew 0.5%, Coca-Cola trade brands declined 1% and we are very pleased that we saw Coca-Cola Zero Sugar growing 10% driven by the highly successful relaunch of the brands as Coca-Cola Zero Sugar which looks and tests more like regular Coca-Cola.


Regular Coca-Cola did decline 1.5% for the year.


Sparkling flavors and energy grew 5% in the year and The sparkling flavors results also reflected solid growth in our Fanta brand, which was up nearly 4%.


Our Still brands grew 2%, driven by growth in sports drinks, water and teas, offsetting softness in fruit and juice drinks.


Our water business led by Aquabona and Smartwater, and Chaudfontaine, and Vio grew at 3.5%.


Our guidance for 2017, as you read our release we affirmed a prior operating guidance, including expectations of modest low single-digit revenue growth with operating profit and diluted earnings per share growth to be up high single-digits.


Today, we announced an increase of over 20% to our quarterly dividend.


We returned to growth in 2016 and affirmed our 2017 guidance for high single digit growth in both operating profit for diluted earnings per share.


For the fourth quarter, CCEP achieved pro-forma comparable earnings per diluted share of $0.43, including a negative currency impact of $0.03, and overall increase of 16%.


Revenue grew 4% on a pro-forma comparable and currency neutral basis, which includes the benefits of one extra selling day in the quarter versus the prior year.


Fourth quarter revenue per unit case was up 1.5% on a pro-forma comparable and currency neutral basis.


Volume grew 1.5% on a pro-forma comparable basis, after adjusting for one additional selling day versus the same quarter a year ago, or 2.5% including the benefits of the one extra selling day.


Operating profit grew 13% on a pro-forma comparable and currency neutral basis.


Importantly, these results reflect modest margin expansion as operating profit grew ahead of revenue growth even after excluding synergy benefits of approximately EUR20 million in the quarter.


For the full year, we achieved diluted earnings per share of EUR1.92 on a pro-forma comparable basis, an increase of 13% on a pro-forma comparable basis including a negative currency translation impact of $0.08 per share.


Full year 2016 revenue increased 1% with full year revenue per unit case growth of 0.5% and volume of a 0.5% or on a pro-forma comparable and currency neutral basis.


Our pro-forma comparable operating profit grew 1% or 5% on a pro-forma comparable and currency neutral basis.


Excluding the benefits of synergies of approximately EUR35 million in 2016 in the second half, our operating profit grew approximately 2%, ahead of our revenue growth of 1%.


As indicated, full year revenue per case grew 0.5% while cost of sales per unit case was flat, both on the pro forma comparable and currency neutral basis.


Pro forma comparable and currency neutral operating expenses increased 0.5% for the full year, reflecting the impact of volume growth and wage inflation, partially offset by the benefits of restructuring.


Outlook for 2017.


For the full year, we expect modest low single-digit revenue growth with high single-digit operating profit and diluted earnings per share growth.


These growth figures are on a comparable and currency neutral basis at recent rates currency translation would reduce 2017 full year diluted earnings per share by approximately 2%.


We expect free cash flow in the range of EUR700 million to EUR800 million, including an expected benefit from improved working capital of at least EUR150 million.


Capital expenditures are expected to be in the range of EUR575 million to EUR625 million, including EUR75 million to EUR100 million of capital expenditures related to the synergy capture.


Excluding capital expenditures related these synergies, CapEx is expected to be less than the 5% of revenues.


Weighted average cost of debt is expected to be approximately 2% and the comparable effective tax rate the 2017 is expected to be in the range of 24% to 26%.


We remain on track to achieve pretax run-rate savings of EUR315 million to EUR340 million through synergies by mid-2019.


We have already achieved savings of approximately EUR35 million in the second half of 2016 and we expect to exit 2017 with run-rate savings of approximately 1.5 of that total of that total target.


Cash costs to achieve these synergies are expected to be approximately 2.25 times expected savings, this includes post closed cash cost associated with pre-transaction closed accruals as we indicated as we indicated in December.


Given the these factors, currency exchange rates and our outlook for 2017, CCEP now expects year-end net-debt-to-EBITDA for 2017 to be just under three times.


The first quarter of 2017 has one less selling days in the first quarter 2016 with the full year 2017 having one less selling day versus full year 2016.


We declared our quarterly dividend of EUR0.21 or an annualized of EUR0.84, an increase of 23.5% over 2016.


This represents an approximate 40% dividend payout ratio at the higher end of previously stated dividend payout range.



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