Even though President Donald Trump has promised the $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks by mid-2026, prediction markets are skeptical that policy changes would come anytime soon.
Prediction Markets Reduce Odds
The odds of Trump creating a tariff dividend, either by signing a federal legislation or through an executive order, this year, collapsed to 3% on Polymarket, down from 14% a week earlier.
Over $1 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Trump formally creates the dividend within the time frame, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
Cryptocurrency punters were not optimistic about any developments early next year as well, with only 11% odds that the dividend will be created on or before March 31, 2026.
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Meanwhile, bettors on Kalshi, a federally licensed prediction platform, saw only a 3% chance that a bill for tariff rebate checks becomes law this year.
Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL)Polymarket lets users bet on outcomes using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. Note that, unlike Kalshi, it is not currently available to U.S. residents.
Trump Promises Checks By Mid-2026
The dip in excitement comes even as Trump announced on Monday that his administration will begin issuing the checks to Americans by mid-2026 or later.
Trump said earlier this month that every American, excluding “high-income” people, would receive at least $2,000, funded by tariff revenues, even though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that dividends may arrive through other means rather than checks in the mail.
Bessent also stated that the proposal “needs legislation” or congressional approval to proceed with the distribution of any such dividend.
Meanwhile, experts have noted that the tariff revenue might not be sufficient to cover the $2,000 dividend plan.
The Treasury Department reported $195 billion in tariff collections through the first three quarters of the year, more than 250% of what it collected in fiscal year 2024.
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