2028 Election Odds Out From Polymarket: Vance Tops List At 27%, Trump Has 5%, Here's What Voters Say In New Poll

President Donald Trump has been in office for nearly six months of a four-year term. While Trump has more than three years left, prediction markets and polls for the 2028 presidential election are already heating up.

2028 Election Odds: Vice President J.D. Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom continue to top the prediction markets when it comes to betting for the 2028 presidential elections.

Prediction market Kalshi has markets open for the Republican and Democratic winners, but not an overall winner.

Here are the current frontrunners for the GOP nomination, with their odds from June in parentheses:

• JD Vance: 54% (41%)
• Marco Rubio: 8% (8%)
• Tulsi Gabbard: 5% (8%)
• Donald Trump: 5% (7%)
• Ron DeSantis: 4% (5%)
• Donald Trump Jr.: 4% (5%)

The 22^nd Amendment currently would keep Trump from serving more than two terms in the White House, but he’s included in Kalshi’s odds here.

Here are the betting odds on Kalshi for the Democrat Party nominee for the 2028 election, with odds from June in parentheses:

• Gavin Newsom: 18% (15%)
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 14% (13%)
• Pete Buttigieg: 10% (9%)
• Wes Moore: 7% (7%)
• Josh Shapiro: 6% (7%)
• Kamala Harris: 4% (4%)
• Gretchen Whitmer: 4% (3%)

Kalshi also offers betting on which party will win the election with the Democratic party the current favorite at 52%.

Polymarket has just launched its first prediction markets for the candidates in the 2028 election. The prediction market has overall odds and odds to win the Republican and Democratic party nominations. Polymarket also has betting for which party will win with the Democratic Party favored at 54%.

Here is the overall betting odds for the 2028 presidential winner from Polymarket:

• JD Vance: 27%
• Gavin Newsom: 15%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 10%
• Pete Buttigieg: 8%
• Marco Rubio: 6%
• Ron DeSantis: 5%
• Donald Trump: 5%
• Kamala Harris: 4%
• Nikki Haley: 3%
• Gretchen Whitmer: 3%
• Glenn Youngkin: 3%
• Tim Walz: 2%
• Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
• Donald Trump Jr.: 2%

With over $90,000 in early bets on Polymarket, surprisingly enough it is Trump who is not currently constitutionally able to run for the election getting over $31,000 of the bets, followed by Vance at $25,000, Buttigieg at $11,000 and Ocasio-Cortez at $10,000.

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New 2028 Election Poll: The new betting market from Polymarket comes as a new Echelon Insights poll for the 2028 election was released, as shared by the New York Post.

In the primary poll, Democratic voters picked the following as their top candidate:

• Kamala Harris: 26%
• Pete Buttigieg: 11%
• Gavin Newsom: 10%
• Cory Booker: 7%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6%
• Mark Cuban: 3%

The poll found that 13% of voters were unsure who their top pick would be. The poll also asked who voters would choose as their top pick if Harris doesn't run. In that poll, Newsome and Buttigieg tied for first at 12%, with Ocasio-Cortez ranking third at 9%.

The poll found the following as the top Republican candidate:

• JD Vance: 42%
• Ron DeSantis: 9%
• Marco Rubio: 7%
• Nikki Haley: 6%
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 5%
• Vivek Ramaswamy: 4%

The poll found that 16% of voters were unsure who their top Republican candidate would be.

The poll and prediction markets currently differ quite a bit with prediction markets seeming to already price in Harris not running or placing her odds of winning the election extremely low despite faring well in polls.

Vance dominates both the polls and prediction markets, although a large number of bets by dollar on Polymarket are coming in on Trump with bettors predicting he could end up being allowed to run.

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Image: Shutterstock/Lev Radin