Walmart Analysts: Strategy Curbs Price Hikes Despite Tariffs

Analysts are expressing views on Walmart Inc. WMT prior to its earnings release on May 15.

On Monday, Telsey Advisory Analyst Joseph Feldman maintained the Outperform rating and price forecast of $115.

The analyst maintained the first quarter (Q1) estimates of 3.8% sales growth to $167.6 billion vs. FactSet consensus (FS) of $165.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.56 (FS: $0.57).

Feldman expects the quarter to benefit from grocery share gains, improving non-discretionary, e-commerce/marketplace progress, rollbacks, and broader wallet share (including higher-income).

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The analyst adds that similar to recent trends at Amazon and Costco, Q1 sales could see a pull-forward in select categories like electronics.

Feldman writes that these positive factors are expected to be partially offset by selective consumer spending (especially on discretionary items) and unfavorable FX trends.

Overall, Feldman expects Walmart to navigate the current uncertain environment effectively.

For 2025, the analyst estimates sales growth of 4.0% to $708 billion, vs. the FS of 3.6% ($705 billion) and consistent with Walmart’s reiterated April guidance of 3%-4% (constant currency).

The analyst sees adjusted EPS of $2.56 vs. FS of $2.60 and within Walmart’s $2.50-$2.60 guidance range.

The analyst anticipate continued selective consumer spending amid tariff-driven uncertainty regarding inventory and prices.

Meanwhile, additional tariffs, such as the current elevated rates on China, could necessitate significant actions, including potential price increases, to protect profits, adds the analyst.

B Of A Securities analyst Robert F. Ohmes kept the Buy rating with a price forecast of $120.

The analyst estimates adjusted EPS of $0.59 and a 3% increase in U.S. comparable sales for Q1, with comparable sales forecast indicating a deceleration compared to the fourth quarter.

Ohmes says that the estimates incorporate impacts from lapping the leap day last year (-100 basis point headwind to sales and -250 basis points to EBIT), the Vizio acquisition (a +15 basis point benefit to sales but a -70 basis point impact on EBIT), and foreign exchange.

The analyst writes that while not entirely shielded, Walmart is well-equipped to handle tariffs due to its strong supplier relationships, sophisticated pricing and automation strategies, effective inventory management, and the option to transition some directly sold (1P) imported goods to its third-party (3P) marketplace.

The analyst adds that given that groceries have a lower import exposure (they constitute 60% of Walmart’s U.S. sales), the company’s overall import exposure is limited to roughly one-third of its total U.S. business.

Price Action: WMT shares are down 0.4% at $96.26 at the last check Monday.

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