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Earnings Expectations for the Week of October 10

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The new earnings season gets underway this week when Alcoa (NYSE: AA) posts its third-quarter results on Tuesday. The rest of the week will bring results from Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP). Analysts anticipate year-over-year earnings growth from all of these companies except for JPMorgan. Here is a quick look at what analysts expect from these reports.

Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer Alcoa is expected to report Tuesday that its third-quarter earnings rose 59.1% from a year ago to $0.22 per share. And revenues are anticipated to have risen 18.1% to $6.2 billion. So far, the full-year forecast calls for per-share earnings 48.1% higher than a year ago and revenues up 17.5%. Alcoa has not fallen short of consensus earnings estimates in the past six quarters. Per-share earnings are predicted to grow 37.7% over the next five years. But despite a 1.5% rise in the past week, the share price has fallen since reaching a 52-high in April and is now down more than 36% year to date. But the stock has outperformed competitor Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH) since the beginning of the year.

Analysts are looking for soft drink and snack food giant PepsiCo to report Wednesday that its per-share earnings rose 6.2% year over year to $1.30. And for the third quarter during which the company completed its acquisition of Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods, revenues are expected to total $17.3 billion. That would be an increase of 11.2% from a year ago. Analysts predict that EPS and sales will be even stronger in the current quarter. Note that consensus EPS estimates have come within a penny or two of results in the past six quarters. The stock, though, fell to a 52-week low of $58.50 per share last week, well off the 52-week high of $71.89 back in May. Year to date, the stock has underperformed competitors Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT).

Google is in the process of acquiring Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) as well as in a struggle over patents with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). When Google posts its third-quarter results on Thursday, it is expected to offer up $8.74 per share earnings on $7.2 billion in revenues. A year ago, earnings were $7.64 per share and revenues totaled $5.5 billion. Google topped consensus EPS estimates in four of the past six quarters. The company has a long-term EPS growth forecast of 19.2% and a return on equity of 19.5%. The share price is about 2% lower than three months ago and down more than 13% year to date. Over the past six months, the stock has underperformed Apple but outperformed competitors such as Aol (NYSE: AOL).

The consensus forecast for JPMorgan, which is in better shape than Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) or Citigroup (NYSE: C) according to Bernstein Research, calls for $0.96 per share earnings in Thursday's report. That would be a 4.9% decrease from the third quarter a year ago. Revenues are expected to have fallen 2.5% to $23.7 billion for the quarter in which the company said it would exit the tax lien business. But analysts have underestimated JPMorgan's per-share earnings in the past 10 quarters. The company offers a dividend yield of 3.3% and has a long-term EPS growth forecast of 8.9%. Despite a 10% rise from a recent 52-week low, the share price is down about 26% year to date. Over the past six months however, the stock has outperformed both Bank of America and Citigroup.

During the three months that ended in September, toy producer Mattel lost the Bratz case, said Cars 2 drove strong Q2 results, and one of its cofounders died. On Friday, the maker of Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price toys and American Girl is expected to post $0.86 per share earnings for that period, on revenues of $1.9 billion. That compares to earnings of $0.77 per share and $1.8 billion in revenues in the third quarter of last year. And so far, the full-year forecast calls for EPS up 13.1% and revenues up 7.9%. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.9% and the dividend yield is 3.4%. The share price rose more than 3% in the past week and it is more than 18% higher than a year ago. The stock has outperformed rival Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) since the beginning of the year.

Other companies expected to post year-over-year EPS growth this week include ADTRAN (NASDAQ: ADTN), Fastenal (NASDAQ: FAST), Lindsay (NYSE: LNN), Safeway (NYSE: SWY), Valmont Industries (NYSE: VMI) and WD-40 (NASDAQ: WDFC).

 

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