Friday's Jobs Number Could All But Guarantee The Federal Reserve Takes Its Foot Off The Gas On Inflation

Zinger Key Points
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.
  • Economists are anticipating that employers added 180,000 payrolls last month.

Key jobs data is due Friday, and recent numbers suggest the labor market remains tight. Here's a look at what you need to know ahead of Friday's print

Friday's Jobs Report: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, which will measure how many jobs were created in the U.S. last month across a majority of businesses. 

The number looks to build on a trend of cooling payroll data. Data released last month showed that the U.S. added 236,000 jobs in March, below average economist estimates of 239,000 and significantly lower than the 311,000 jobs that were added in February. 

Now economists are anticipating employers to have added 180,000 payrolls in April, according to Benzinga Pro

But other measures seem to suggest the labor market may not be cooling off as fast as most economists expect.

U.S. private sector employment saw a significant increase last month. 296,000 jobs were added in April, more than doubling expectations of just 148,000 jobs, per the ADP National Employment Report released earlier this week.

Thursday's jobless claims data ticked higher from last week, but the number was just slightly above economist forecasts, another sign that the labor market may be staying tighter for longer. 

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims increased by 13,000 to 242,000 in the week ended April 29 and continuing claims actually decreased in the prior week. 

See Also: ECB Hikes Interest Rates To 2008 Levels As Inflation Remains 'Too High'

Why It Matters: The jobs data comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised rates another 0.25%, marking its tenth straight rate increase. 

Wednesday's 0.25% rate hike brings the target fed funds rate to a new range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest levels since 2007. 

Most expect this week's rate hike to be the last in the current cycle and a cooler-than-expected jobs number could all but guarantee a pause at the Fed's next meeting, especially considering the current state of the banks

Concerns around the banking sector have fanned the flames on bank stocks, and weakness has spread to the broader markets. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE was down 4.87% at $36.30 on Thursday, and the SPDR S&P 500 SPY was trading 0.59% lower at $405.61 at the time of publication.

A pause from the Fed could ease pressure on the banks and would be viewed as a positive for overall markets. 

The central bank made a dovish shift in the language it used in its FOMC statement this week. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is currently projecting greater than a 90% chance of a pause at the next Fed meeting on June 14.

Read Next: 7 Market Experts Analyze The Fed's Latest Interest Rate Hike: 'Tug Of War Between Powell And Investors'

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Posted In: NewsPreviewsEcon #sFederal ReserveTrading IdeasADP National EmploymentInflationJobless Claimslabor departmentNonfarm PayrollsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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