Global-E Online Has Multiple Growth Avenues Like Shopify Partnership, Geographic Expansion, D2C Shift, Analysts Say

Needham analyst Scott Berg reiterated a Buy on Global-E Online Ltd GLBE with a $44 price target. Global-e reported strong 3Q22 financial results as cross-border e-commerce spending remained well within expectations

The foreign exchange created a headwind in the quarter, costing the Company several points of growth, and was responsible for the shortfall in 4Q22 revenue guidance. 

GLBE shares could be moderately weak today as the market digests the FX impact and a large customer starts pushing into 1Q23, which was the balance of the 4Q22 revenue guidance shortfall. However, net new bookings remain elevated, which highlights the secular demand in cross-border e-commerce. 

Also, on the positive side, profitability is improving faster than expected as acquisition synergies occur. Berg reduced his FY23 revenue estimate, assuming recession-related weakness in consumer spending.

Keybanc analyst Josh Beck maintained Global E Online with an Overweight and cut the price target from $40 to $30. Global-E beat revenue by an MSD amount comparable to the prior quarter while lowering revenue guidance, factoring in worsening FX headwinds and a go-live time shift from 4Q to 1Q. 

Beck was encouraged by wins like a Mattel, Inc MAT toy brand, luxury segment wins, and encouraging Shopify Inc SHOP partnership progress across both the direct and white-label side. 

Beck reduced Street-low revenue estimates factoring in additional FX and macro headwinds, which prompts a lower price target. 

The Company has demonstrated a clear lean growth mindset and, through new logos and execution across both direct and white-label elements of a Shopify partnership, is poised to gain further global x-border D2D e-Com market share via a unique open-SaaS platform. 

Raymond James analyst Brian Peterson reiterated Global E Online with an Outperform and reduced the price target from $40 to $35. The re-rating followed the 3Q results that exceeded consensus expectations, with a below consensus 4Q22 outlook pushing shares lower after hours. 

While the challenging macro (including FX) and difficult pandemic comps should persist, he continues to see multiple avenues for an above-market growth rate for the foreseeable future (logo growth, SHOP partnership, geographic expansion, and shift towards D2C). 

Despite a more measured outlook heading into YE22, he believes GLBE will grow much faster than overall e-commerce over the next several years, with several catalysts still in their infancy. 

Price Action: GLBE shares traded lower by 13.90% at $21.13 on the last check Thursday.

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