EUR/USD Forecast: Shrugged Off Its Bearish Tone But Is Far From Signaling A Steeper Advance

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1771

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded in March at the fastest pace since 1983, jumping to 64.7.
  • Most countries will be on holidays this Friday amid Good Friday.
  • EUR/USD has shrugged off its bearish tone but is far from signaling a steeper advance.

The dollar edged lower on Thursday, as most market players head into a long Easter weekend. Upbeat US data boosted equities, which in turn sent government bond yields down, adding to dollar shorts. Worth noting that US markets not only will be open Friday, but the country will publish the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report.

 On the data front, German Retail Sales were up by 1.2% in February and fell by 9% when compared to a year earlier. The final versions of the March Manufacturing PMIs for the Union were upwardly revised, with that for the EU printing at 62.4. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 26, which unexpectedly surged to 719K.  The official ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded in March at the fastest pace since 1983, jumping to 64.7 in March from 60.8 previously.

Europe celebrates Good Friday and won’t publish macroeconomic data. As said, the US will release employment-related figures. The country is expected to have added 647K new jobs in March, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 6%, down from 6.2% in the previous month. The market reaction could be exacerbated by the diminished volumes.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.1770 price zone, losing its bearish potential in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has managed to advance above a still flat 20 SMA while trading below bearish longer ones. Technical indicators advanced within positive levels for the first time in over a week, although the bullish momentum is limited, as the RSI has turned flat at around 55.

Support levels: 1.1705 1.1665 1.1620

Resistance levels: 1.1760 1.1810 1.1850

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

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