EUR/USD Forecast: At Risk Of Losing The 1.1700 Level In The Near-Term

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1766

• A sour market sentiment maintained the greenback on the winning side.
• US March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index jumped to 28.9 from 17.2.
• EUR/USD at risk of losing the 1.1700 level in the near-term.

The EUR/USD pair spent Monday consolidating at the lower end of its March range, extending its yearly decline by a couple of pips to a fresh low of 1.1760. The market’s sentiment was generally sour, as the market was focused on the liquidation of a hedge fund late Friday, which pushed global equities lower as Credit Suisse and Nomura reported significant losses as a result of the $20 billion block-sale. Another point of concern is US President Joe Biden’s spending plan, which may include $1 trillion in new tax hikes. Major indexes in Europe and the US were under pressure, ending the day mixed.

On the data front, the EU had an empty macroeconomic calendar, while the US published the March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, which jumped to 28.9 from 17.2, largely surpassing the expected 12.1. This Tuesday, the EU will publish the March Economic Sentiment Indicator, while Germany will post the preliminary estimate of March inflation data. The US will release CB Consumer Confidence foreseen at 96.9 from 91.3 in the previous month.

EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is trading in the 1.1770 price zone, under pressure in the near-term. The 4-hour chart shows that a bearish 20 SMA attracted intraday sellers while extending its decline below the longer ones, which also head south. Technical indicators remain directionless within negative levels, in line with persistent selling interest. The pair may accelerate its decline once below 1.1760, the immediate support. The risk of a bearish breakout will decrease on a recovery beyond 1.1810.

Support levels: 1.1760 1.1720 1.1680

Resistance levels: 1.1810 1.1850 1.1890

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