Market Overview

How To Trade The US GDP With EUR/USD

  • The GDP release provides an overview of the economy and tends to move markets.
  • The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
  • The EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 40 pips in the following 4 hours.

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.89 deviation (1.97 ) [BUY Pair]


  • Key Resistance Level: 1.1730


If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.89 or less(1.97 or lower in actual terms), the EUR/USD may go up reaching a range of 28 pips in the first 15 minutes and 74 pips in the following 4 hours. 

1.1650 capped the pair on several occasions during June. 1.1730 provided support when the EUR/USD traded on higher ground. 1.1850 that served as a high point on June 14th.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.68 deviation (2.36 ) [SELL Pair]
  • Key Support Level: 1.1540

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.68 or higher(2.36 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 27 pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours.

The significant support line to watch is at the June 15th, and 19th lows of 1.1540 and stronger support is at 1.1510 which is the lowest level since July 2017. Even lower, 1.1480 is notable for serving as an essential line last summer.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart


More data

The third and final release of US GDP for Q1 is expected to confirm the 2.2 percent annualized growth rate reported in the previous publication. However, changes can certainly happen and move markets which fear of a slowdown amid trade tariffs. 

See US GDP Preview: The good enough growth will likely be confirmed

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 40 pips in the following 4 hours.

The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.40 regarding relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 14 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 55 pips 4 hours after that. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Posted-In: FXStreetNews Eurozone Forex Markets


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