Market Overview

American FX Outlook: To strike or not to strike Assad? That is the question for Trump

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What you need to know before markets open

  • Geopolitical risk is set to increase massively as the US President Trump signals military action against Russia’s ally Syria as any kind of military intervention in Syria would immediately lead to the escalation of tensions with markets turning to risk-off profile.
  • The geopolitical fear factor is set to take over any macro data due later this Thursday once the military action begins.
  • The Eurozone industrial production marked another steep decline over the month in February adding to signs of the Eurozone growth decelerating as the manufacturing activity looks like have already peaked at the turn of the year.
  • The ECB meeting minutes are expected to confirm the reasons for the bank to drop the easing bias in March. For detail read my Preview here.
  • While giving a public speech in his homeland Canada, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is set to follow the pattern of his Deputy Governor Broadbent speaking in Australia more in general terms about the need of combining macroprudential measures with monetary policy under one roof, refraining from making direct monetary policy hints.

Thursday’s market moving events

  • The ECB March meeting minutes are due. For details read my Preview here.
  • The ECB executive board member Benoit Cœuré participates in a panel discussion at a conference “France and Europe in Globalisation” in Paris at 12:15 GMT.
  • The US initial jobless claims are seen rising 230K in the week ending April 6.
  • The US export and import prices are both expected to increase 3.6 percent over the year in March.
  • Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is scheduled to deliver a speech titled "A spirit of optimism in Europe - guidelines for a crisis-proof monetary union" at the Ludwig Erhard Lecture, in Berlin at 16:00 GMT.
  • The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to deliver closing remarks at the Public Policy Forum's Canada growth summit, in Toronto at 19:00 GMT.

Major market movers

  • The US Dollar rose against both major European rivals EUR and GBP as the industrial production in the Eurozone fell in February and the risk of geopolitical tensions increased.
  • The EUR/USD will be in focus with the ECB meeting minutes due on Thursday with markets seeking clues for QE program ending confirming ECB’s removal of easing bias in March communication.

Earlier in Asia/Europe

  • In line with expectations, the Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent gave a speech about the separation of power between monetary and macro-prudential policies while speaking at the event of the Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney.
  • French CPI rose 1.0 percent m/m in March while increasing 1.7 percent over the year.
  • The Bank of England said in its credit condition survey that the competition in the consumer credit market in the UK remains robust despite some continued signs of tightening in availability.
  • The Eurozone industrial production fell -0.8 percent m/m in February while increasing 2.9 percent over the year.

Posted-In: FXStreetNews Forex Markets

 

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