Fitch Ratings has upgraded Greece's Long-term
foreign and local currency IDRs to 'B-' from 'CCC'. The Short-term foreign
currency IDR has also been upgraded to 'B' from 'C' and the Country Ceiling
upgraded to 'B' from 'B-'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDRs is Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The upgrade of Greece's sovereign ratings by one notch to 'B-' reflects the
following factors:
The Greek economy is rebalancing: clear progress has been made towards
eliminating twin fiscal and current account deficits and 'internal devaluation'
has at last begun to take hold. The price has been high in terms of lost output
and rising unemployment and the capacity for recovery is still in doubt.
Nonetheless, sovereign debt relief and an easing of fiscal targets have lifted
Central Bank measures of economic sentiment to a three-year high and the risk of
eurozone exit has receded.
The Economic Adjustment Programme (EAP) is on track amid a semblance of
political and social stability. The current administration has displayed much
greater ownership of the EU-IMF funded EAP than its predecessors, committing to
further upfront fiscal consolidation and a renewed push on structural reforms.
Still, tangible economic recovery remains elusive, while resistance to reform is
high, underlining the continuing risks to implementation.
Greek primary fiscal adjustment of over 9% of GDP in 2009-12 (excluding one-off
support to the financial sector), and around 16% in cyclically adjusted terms,
ranks as the most ambitious instance of fiscal consolidation among advanced
economies in recent times. The current account deficit has also shrunk from 10%
of GDP in 2011 to 3% in 2012. The revised EU-IMF programme gives Greece two
additional years (2015-16) to attain a primary surplus of 4.5% of GDP. This
relaxation is reflected in Fitch's expectation of a milder economic contraction
of around 4.3% in 2013 (-6.4% in 2012) and a weak recovery in 2014.
Structural reforms are progressing. The financial system has stabilised:
EUR16bn-EUR17bn of time deposits have returned to the system since mid-2012 and
bank recapitalisation is well advanced. Meanwhile, a small, but significant
milestone was passed earlier this month with the completion of the first major
privatisation since the EAP began. Considerable progress has also been made with
labour market reforms and 80% of the earlier loss of competitiveness has been
clawed back. However, product market reform remains a major challenge: progress
in this area will be important to support a sustainable recovery and for the
success of the EAP.
Extensive private and public sovereign debt restructuring has put programme
funding on a more secure footing and should moderate the rise in the peak public
debt/GDP ratio to around 180% in 2013-14. Notwithstanding this still extremely
high headline public debt ratio, the significantly reduced interest cost and
maturity extension provided by the debt restructuring and EAP financing means
that sovereign debt service now appears more secure than the size of the debt
stock would otherwise imply. Even so, public debt sustainability is still far
from assured and will be dependent on economic recovery and a sustained primary
fiscal surplus.
The degree of default risk for private creditors, encapsulated in the previous
'CCC' rating, has subsided. In Fitch's view, sovereign debt restructuring and
debt buy-backs have reduced private creditors' share of general government debt
to the point (15%, excluding T-bills), where there would be little to be gained
financially from any further restructuring. Barring Greek exit from the euro,
Fitch could envisage official creditors bearing the brunt of any future default,
albeit the political considerations of any such move may not be straightforward.
Greece's sovereign ratings are underpinned by its still high income per capita,
which far exceeds 'B' and 'BB' medians, its superior measures of governance on
most counts and membership of the eurozone, which shields it from balance of
payments and exchange rate risks and has facilitated access to unprecedented
financial assistance.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that upside and downside risks to
the rating are more broadly balanced than in the recent past. Nonetheless, the
following risk factors individually, or collectively, could trigger a rating
action:
Sustained economic recovery founded on solid implementation of the EU-IMF
programme, including broad structural reforms, would be grounds for an upgrade.
Conversely, failure of the economy to recover, leading to the re-emergence of
renewed funding gaps could trigger a negative rating action. Likewise, renewed
political and social instability, leading to an unravelling of the EU-IMF
programme, would intensify the risks of Greek exit from the euro zone and
widespread default - sovereign and private sector - leading to a downgrade.
Macroeconomic imbalances have generated high public and external debt and left
Greece acutely vulnerable to domestic and external shocks, such as developments
in Cyprus. Fitch does not interpret the Troika's (EU/IMF/ECB) treatment of
Cyprus as implying any diminution of support for Greece. However, the agency
considers that developments in Cyprus could have a knock-on effect to Greece,
were the EAP to go off track again, leading to speculation among Greek
businesses and depositors about how larger financing gaps might be filled.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
The ratings and Outlooks are sensitive to a number of assumptions:
- Political and social stability are maintained and the current administration
remains in place.
- Continued broad adherence to the EU-IMF EAP. The sustainability of Greece's
public finances and its continued membership of the eurozone depend upon the
implementation of structural and fiscal reforms and their effectiveness in
laying the foundations for a sustained economic recovery. Outright rejection of
the EAP, or material slippage against targets, would trigger a downgrade.
- Fitch assumes that the EUR50bn allocated to recapitalisation of Greek banks is
sufficient and that the financial sector makes no further material demands on
the sovereign balance sheet.
- Public debt outcomes are sensitive to assumptions about growth, the primary
balance and interest rates.
- Greece remains a member of the eurozone and does not seek to impose capital
controls in the face of renewed strains on sovereign creditworthiness. In the
event of a Greek exit from EMU, Fitch would treat the forcible redenomination of
sovereign and private sector debt as a default event in line with its Distressed
Debt Exchange rating criteria.
- The eurozone remains intact and that there is no materialisation of severe
tail risks to global financial stability and investor confidence.
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