I know this Bear Trade is in Here Somewhere … It's Just a Matter of When $ES_F 1578 x 1554

Today's Economic News:

Not much news today… maybe some time bomb in those FOMC minutes or a pledge to support the markets via QE forever, watch the markets around 2pm ET.

Quote of the Day:
No human investigation can be called real science if it cannot be demonstrated mathematically.
–Leonardo da Vinci

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

We continue to point out all the reasons why we are near a top (ok, so yesterday we said it was the top).  This is the cumulative volume and you can see, as we push higher in prices, we do so on less and less positive volume.  Like all bearish divergences, that too can correct.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1578
Long:  1554

I don't know what is more painful, the teasing or the actual action.  Yesterday, I was worried about looking wrong on a top call early, instead, the market began selling and it looked like I was a genius in the making.  Oops… I went to write and kept my eyes off the screen only to return to another snap and run rally back up to new highs.   I have decided to call myself Yogi Bear.

That action has forced us to push our price target all the way up to 1578 area.  The area of interest really starts at 1574 and extends to around 1579.  Maybe the bears can find some exhausted bulls there.

Even more disappointing for the bears is the landing zone zooming up 30 points based on the breadth of yesterday's action!  That had been my entry price area.

So we keep chugging higher but the market drops are getting more violent.  We approach the morning with a 60 minute extreme oversold RSI-2.  An early short here into the market open could just pay something.

We still think this is all topping action and  remain in denial that we can go much higher.  We put in 218 new 52 week highs on the NYSE yesterday, we mentioned having to keep that below 100, well we are not doing a very good job.  I had been willing to play the short game up through May.  I have been chasing this trade since February, wanting to get the big one, it looks like I might have to wait just bit longer.

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

This 82.30 area is key for the dollar as major support.  A sustained breakdown here will put our 86 target on hold.  We like it long from here back up to 82.70.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

We are amazed at the hold on TLT.  The lower rates are helping the markets, but also indicate that fear is creeping in.  The Feds are doing their best to keep us going.

 

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Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

We are correcting here, so even as price stalls, the under the hood breadth is weakening, but that can just be a rolling correction, the market will tell us in the next 10 days.

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Cumulative Volume Index:

This is another bearish divergence that needs to correct in the next 10 days. .

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Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

I don't' see much either way here.

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New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

So at least we are not in the 90s… We will watch for a 3rd follow-through today to see if that is possible.

 

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Trenders :

Short Term Trender -  McClellan Summation Index:

Stubbornly bearish.

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Long Term Trender -  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Still on the fence here with the fat-lady.  The bulls need to push it up now.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

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