Market Overview

Is it 4pm Yet? $ES_F 1402 is Our Bottom Target and Still Looking for 1430


Around the Globe


    Asia – CLOSED
    • Shanghai (China) +1.24%
    • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +0.21%
    • Nikkei (Japan)+0.70%

Europe as of 7:10am EDT

    • DAX (Germany) -0.56%
    • FTSE (UK) -0.27%


Today's Economic News:


Not the greatest numbers out of Japan last night, but their markets rocked and when the ball was handed to Europe… fumble.  I can't find anything except Europe pessimism on USA Fiscal talks.

Quote of the Day:
There is no worse lie than a truth misunderstood by those who hear it.
–William James

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)


While a red nose on a reindeer might be cute, that little red nose on the end of our green snake puts our favorite trend indicator into a neutral call, needing a move below that 15 DMA to trigger a full out trend change.  We would expect some bull battle in here right now to wrestle this snake.


ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1430
Long: 1402

We can't wait to close down the servers and shutter the doors for the day and wish that Monday was not a trading day at all.  Let's get through today.  For those that are trading intraday, we missed on our 1408 low call yesterday as the markets fell through that and tested the 1400 on a revisit and then some fiscal optimism came in and we really just bounced up to resume the much slower decaying trend line marked on the chart below.  To have any sense of pride or control, the bulls need to re-capture that 1416 area.

We would expect for 1402 to hold today.  We are near there now.  These monster 10+ point moves based on news, however, continue to put the scalping business in danger and those with small accounts that can't drink out of champagne glasses during a turbulent flight should fasten their seat belts and stay put.   Low volume, news, and sentiment are all working against directional trades.

The weekend play will be interesting as TLT has climbed all week, will it still be seen as a good trade for the weekend?



US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

We have lost the dollar to the upside where we have 80.50 and 79.50 right now as the trading range.  That would mean we would like to put in a short near the 80.50 area if it comes up into there.


TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

Somebody needs to let TLT in on the news that rates are going up.  We won't even venture a call today heading into a special session of congress to avert a fiscal cliff.  We will watch closely and add to our experience and journals though.


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