USD / JPY – Continues to Push Against 82.50

Since March this year, the Yen has been on a little roller coaster ride.  After slowly declining earlier this year from around 84, the Yen received solid support at 78. For several months in the middle of this year, this level consistently supported the Yen and temporarily halted its steady decline, in the face of strong evidence it was going to fall lower.   Often an extended period of consolidation like this is considered healthy after a strong fall. On several occasions, the Yen appeared likely to break through the support level at 78 however this level stayed strong and was quite resilient throughout this period.

In early October, the Yen again bounced off the 78 level however this time it was able to sustain its movement higher as it broke through a couple of likely resistance levels along the way.  Since the middle of October, there has been an impressive strong move to recently trade at a 7 month high near 83.  In the last few weeks, it has consolidated and established a narrow range roughly between 82 and 83 with pressure coming from both sides.   It has also been meeting reasonable resistance at 82.50 with a few excursions beyond and up towards 83.   Should the Yen resume its upwards move and push through 83, the major turning point from March this year, and potential resistance level near 84 is likely to be a factor again.   (Daily chart below)

USD/JPY Long – Short Ratio

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions for the USD/JPY. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

USD/JPY Technical

• During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Wednesday, the USD/JPY has just eased off a little from a short term resistance level around 82.55.
• The last couple of months have seen the Yen move higher strongly pushing off the key support level at 78.00 and moving towards its seven month highs near 83 .
• Current range: Right around the short term resistance level at 82.50.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 81.50, 80.50 and 79.50.
• Above: 83.00 and 84.00.

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