Monday Market Outlook: 1100-1200 S&P Range Weakening for the Fall Quarter

Fall is here, and the summer's S&P trading range of 1100 to 1200 is looking staler by the day: "The more [the current range] becomes mature, which it has been and continues to be, the more likely we are to test an outer extreme and actually breach it," says Lichtenstein.

"It's been difficult to find any upside momentum," says Lichtenstein. "There's concern for the overall economic picture." In other words, expect that breach to occur on the downside.

This week's market weathervane continues to be the dollar index, which is hovering around 7800, but hinting at a potential breach of the 8000 level as investors flee to "safe" assets. Lichtenstein advises traders to keep a close eye on that level this week and be ready for a spike downward in the S&P should the dollar index hit 8000 with conviction.

If the S&P does break the 1100 level, Lichtenstein sees the next resistance point as 1075. But that's simply an overnight low, so don't expect much support. Below that level things start to get ugly... really ugly. "Below that, I don't see alot. Anything below is kind of outdated." It looks like 1075 is the edge of the precipice.

Here's Lichtenstein's bottom line:

"This week it really comes down to the dollar index, the numbers, and Bernanke's speech [on Tuesday]."

Watch for jobless claims on Thursday, and unemployment on Friday. Make it a safe and productive week - we'll see you back here next Monday.