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Carter Worth's Analysis Of The Impact Of January On The Rest Of The Year

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Carter Worth spoke on CNBC's Fast Money about the impact of January on the market performance for the full year. He showed some statistics which present a case that performance in the first month has strong impact on the performance of the year.

Worth showed the returns of the five best Januaries, when the market gained 11.4 percent and explained that it managed to finish 13.6 percent higher in that year. In the five worst Januaries, the return was -7.3 percent and the market ended a year only 1.8 percent higher.

The first five days of January are also important for the full-year market performance. The probability that the market is going to trade lower in any year is 34 percent, but if the market trades lower in the first five days of January, the probability that the market will close the year lower increases to 56 percent. If January closes lower, the probability that the year will close lower increases to 58 percent.

 

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