The iPhone 17 has been a major catalyst for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock in 2025, helping the company set records in the fourth fiscal quarter. A new report says Apple and other smartphone makers could see declines in 2026. Here's what that means for Apple.
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Global Smartphone Sales To Fall 2.1% In 2026
Apple could exit 2025 as the top smartphone company by market share for the first time in more than a decade. That turn at the top could be short-lived and could come ahead of a 2026 that is predicted to see year-over-year sales declines.
Counterpoint Research has revised its 2026 smartphone shipment forecast to a global year-over-year decline of 2.1%. This is a 2.6 percentage-point downward revision from November.
The report says that rising memory costs could be passed on to consumers and lead to fewer sales, given already rising average smartphone sale prices.
The good news for Apple is that Counterpoint Research expects Chinese OEMs to be hit hardest by the revisions, with the low-end smartphone segment most affected. Apple is, however, expected to see one of the biggest year-over-year declines, according to the new report.
"What we are seeing now is the low end of the market (below $200 being impacted most severely, with BoM (bill of materials) costs increasing by 20%-30% since the beginning of the year," Counterpoint Research Director MS Hwang said.
Here are the current 2026 global smartphone market share and year-over-year sales changes estimated by Counterpoint Research:
- Apple: 19% share, -2.2% year-over-year
- Samsung: 19% share, -2.1% year-over-year
- Xiaomi: 14% share, -1.8% year-over-year
- Vivo: 9% share, -1.2% year-over-year
- Oppo: 8% share, -1.2% year-over-year
- Honor: 6% share, -3.4% year-over-year
- Others: 26% share, -2.5% year-over-year
The report sees average sale prices rising 6.9% year-over-year in 2026, with smartphone companies looking to pass on some of the rising costs to consumers.
Counterpoint estimates that memory prices alone could rise 40% through the second quarter of 2026 for smartphone companies.
"In the lower price bands, steep price increases on smartphones are not sustainable," Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang said.
While Apple is expected to see a sales decline in 2026, the company could be better positioned than other smartphone companies.
"Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters. But it will be tough for others that don't have as much wiggle room to manage market share versus profit margins."
iPhone Helps Apple Hit Records
Apple reported multiple records in the fourth fiscal quarter thanks to strong demand for the iPhone 17. Apple CEO Tim Cook hinted that this was only the beginning, with more records to fall in the first fiscal quarter, which covers the last calendar quarter of 2025.
“We are incredibly excited about the strength we’re seeing across our products and services, and we expect the December quarter’s revenue to be the best ever for the company and the best ever for iPhone,” Cook said.
On the iPhone 17, Cook said the smartphone “has had a tremendous response from our users around the world.”
Apple Chief Financial Officer Kevin Parekh helped quantify what Cook meant when he said the first quarter could set records.
“From today, we expect our December quarter total company revenue to grow by 10% to 12% year-over-year, which would be our best quarter ever,” Parekh said.
Parekh said the first quarter would also be “our best iPhone quarter ever,” with iPhone revenue expected to grow “double digits” year over year.
Apple’s fourth-quarter results marked the 11th consecutive quarter in which the company posted a double-beat, with revenue and earnings per share both ahead of analyst estimates.
The new estimates from Counterpoint could prove to be important when Apple reports first-quarter results. Analysts and investors will be looking for Apple's guidance to show smartphone growth throughout calendar 2026.
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