Agile Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGRX), the commercial-stage women’s healthcare company, posted a 122% increase in third-quarter revenue year-over-year, driven by strong demand for TwirlaⓇ (levonorgestrel and ethinyl estradiol) transdermal system, its birth control patch. The company also reiterated its target for full-year 2023 revenue of at least $25 million and to be cash flow positive from operations in the first quarter of 2024. 

“In the third quarter 2023, we once again achieved all-time highs across several leading indicators, including net revenue, Twirla demand, factory sales and gross margin,” Agile Therapeutics’ Chair and Chief Executive Officer Al Altomari said on a conference call to discuss third-quarter results. “In the past year, we've seen consistent quarter-over-quarter improvements across all of our key performance areas, and we believe there is room for additional growth both in the fourth quarter of 2023 as well as into the first quarter of 2024.”

The company expects additional growth and upside potentially coming from further penetration in the five key states by expanding its current customer bases and getting new ones, boosting its non-retail customer network and advancing Twirla through telemedicine platforms including Nurx, TwentyEight Health and Pandia. It is partnerships with the likes of Nurx and growth in Twirla sales that prompted Maxim Group to recently upgrade its investment rating to buy from hold on Agile and set a 12-month price target of $5.00. With the stock trading around $2.00 per share as of the release of their report, Maxim Group believes it represents the potential for a 150% upside. 

Twirla is a weekly birth control patch that delivers a low dose of estrogen to women with a body mass index (BMI) less than 30 kg/m ² who can become pregnant. Twirla uses the company’s proprietary Skinfusion patch technology to provide consistent drug delivery and help maintain adhesion. It is made with soft, flexible fabric that is only one millimeter thick. Women wear three patches a month followed by one patch-free week, and the company reports the novel patch design keeps the active ingredients in place. 

For the three months ended September 30, Agile Therapeutics posted net revenue of $6.7 million, up 122% from the $3 million it reported in the year-ago third quarter and up 21% from $5.5 million reported in the second quarter of 2023. Results were driven by growing demand for Twirla, which ended the quarter with 74,325 total cycles, a 33% increase from the second quarter of 2023 and a 147% jump from last year’s third quarter. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, sales from the retail channel increased 13% while non-retail sales were up 71%. Factory sales increased 20% compared to the second quarter of 2023. 

For about a year now, Agile Therapeutics has been recalibrating the business, focusing on building a scalable commercial platform without adding more fixed costs. To do that the company is focused on selling Twirla in the five states that are estimated to reach 45% of women between the ages of 18 and 24 and also have strong reimbursement profiles. The firm is also collaborating with partners which it thinks can drive additional Twirla growth. For the first nine months of 2023 compared to the first nine months of 2022, Agile has been able to increase net revenue by 132%, grow demand for Twirla by 156% and reduce operating expenses by 31%. 

"Twirla has been experiencing accelerating total prescriptions (TRx) and demand growth, putting the company at an inflection point, in our view,” the Wall Street firm wrote when upgrading Agile. "We believe the narrative surrounding the stock will change as confidence increases that profitability is approaching.”