UBS's Wayne Gordon Predicts Dollar Strength In Coming Weeks, Followed By Downturn In H2 2023

Zinger Key Points
  • Gordon believes the greenback will witness some weakness during the second half of the year.
  • He expects the negative correlation between gold and dollar to continue.
  • There is a lot more strength in investment demand and central bank demand for gold, he said.

Wayne Gordon, commodities and FX managing director at UBS Global Wealth Management, reportedly said the dollar will gain back a little bit of ground over the next couple of weeks

"What we have seen so far in earnings is things have started to look a little bit better than some analysts expect. Secondly, I think at least from a growth perspective, while we think that the high level indicators in the U.S. continue to deteriorate, what we’ll see bottom up is the relative resilience, particularly of things like the labor market over the next month or so," he told Bloomberg.

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However, Gordon believes the greenback will witness some weakness during the second half of the year as the growth situation in the U.S. may be worrisome.

"But as we get into the second half of the year, it is very clear for us that the U.S. growth situation is going to look relatively worse to that in Europe, for example, as well as potentially in the U.K. and in other countries like Australia. And, also with respect to China," he said.

"So, we do think that the dollar is going to deteriorate over the second half of the year. And we will see these currencies, particularly some of the laggards like the Aussie dollar, for example, will start to actually pick up a lot of the gains over the next three to six months," he added.

Outlook On Gold: Gordon also pointed out that he expects the negative correlation between gold and the dollar to continue due to strong demand.

"The correlation with the dollar and gold has been relatively strong for most of this year. That negative correlation, we expect, will continue, particularly as we’re seeing a lot more strength in areas of investment demand as well as in areas of central bank demand for gold. Some of that is indeed to diversify their portfolios out of dollar base into other assets. And gold has been the recipient of some of that demand," he said.

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