Market Overview

Brent Oil Forecast: Not Out Of The Woods Yet, Bullish Above $57.14

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Brent Oil rose 2% on Tuesday to a high of $56.76 on comments from OPEC and major trading firms that Oil market is rebalancing. Also boosting prices was Saudi Arabia's export cuts in November. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at $56.60/barrel.

Major news/data

Bullish comments from major oil trading firms/investment banks
The chief executive of the trading firm Gunvor, Torbjorn Tornqvist, said the market is rebalancing on the back of falling product stocks and crude held in floating storage clearing up.
The head of top oil trader Vitol, Ian Taylor, told Reuters that "U.S. Oil output could be set for a last spike in 2018 before growth flattens for a number of years as rising costs make a big chunk of production uneconomic". Taylor said, in the short and medium term, the Oil market will remain “boringly rangebound” with prices possibly coming under downward pressure in the first few months of 2018, when demand would typically weaken.
Barclays has raised its Q1 2018 Brent Oil price forecast by $5 to $56.

OPEC Chief urges shale producers to curb output
On Tuesday, OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo urged North American producers to observe restraint and contribute to rebalancing the market.

“This is a shared responsibility of all producers, be they conventional or non-conventional, short or long-cycle investors. We all, at the end of the day, when all is said and done, belong to the same industry and operate in the same markets. We urge our friends in the shale basins of North America to take this shared responsibility with all the seriousness it deserves, as one of the key lessons learned from the current, unique supply-driven cycle,” OPEC’s Secretary General said

Focus on US inventory data
The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly inventory data for last week will be released today at 20.30 GMT and the US Department of Energy’s report is due at 15.00 GMT on Thursday. As per Reuters poll, the inventory data is likely to show a drop in the Oil stocks for a third straight week and a decline in the refined product stockpiles.

Technicals
Daily chart

  • Bullish Doji reversal - Monday's Doji candle and bullish follow-through yesterday
  • Falling trendline hurdle is intact
  • The 14-day RSI holds below the rising trendline
  • Rising trendline support is seen at $54.85
Despite the bullish Doji reversal, Oil is not out of the woods yet as prices need to close above $57.14 (Oct 6 high), in which case doors would open for a rally to $58.85 (Sep 26 high).
 
On the other hand, a drop below the daily low of $56.36 would mark a failure at the falling trendline and could yield a sell-off to $54.95-$54.85 levels.

The preceding article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Posted-In: Forex FXStreet FXstreet.comForex Markets

 

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