Brent Oil Forecast: Bearish Outside Day Candle, Eyes $54.50

Brent Oil dropped 2% on Friday to a low of $55.02, reportedly due to concerns that record US exports have wiped out OPEC led output cuts. Prices recovered slightly to end the week at $55.38 after the Baker-Hughes data reported a cut in the number of US oil rigs.

Macro data/news


Storm Nate weakened to tropical depression - Traders say the impact of Storm Nate has been less than the hurricanes hitting the region in the past months.

US rig count dropped - The US rig count fell by two to 748 last week, General Electric Co’s Baker-Hughes energy services firm said on Friday.

Saudi hopes to reach consensus on future of the global Oil deal ahead of November meeting - Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Friday that the Kingdom hopes to reach a consensus with Russia and other major Oil producers on a future global deal to cut Oil output before the November OPEC meeting.

Russian President Putin said the output cut deal, which is set to expire in March 2018, could be extended further. Falih said his country is open to Putin's suggestion.

Also supporting Oil prices this Monday morning is the speculation that Saudis will look to continue to support the Oil market, especially until the sale of Aramco.

OPEC's Barkindo - extraordinary steps may be needed in 2018 to rebalance the Oil market - “There is a growing consensus that... a rebalancing process is underway. We are gradually but steadily achieving our common and noble objectives,” Mohammad Barkindo told reporters at the India Energy Forum organized by CERAWeek in New Delhi.

Technicals
Daily chart

Observations
  • Bearish outside day candle
  • The 14-day RSI has breached the rising trendline
  • The 10-DMA has topped out
Friday's sharp drop from $51.14 to $55.02 (bearish outside day candle) indicates the corrective rally from the Wednesday's low of $55.32 has ended and the bigger downtrend (from the high of $55.85) has resumed.
 
Thus, prices look set to test $54.50 (support offered by the trendline sloping upwards from the June 21 low and July 10 low).
 
The 14-day RSI has breached the rising trend line, which adds credence to Friday's bearish outside day candle.
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