Exhaustion near 0.8078 (the 127.2% Fib extension of Dec 2016 low/Mar 2017 high/June 2017 low) in September proved to be costly for the Aussie bulls as the AUD/USD pair fell from 0.8103 (mid-Sep high) to 0.7733 (last week's low). The Aussie ended last week at 0.7773 and trades below the 50-day moving average (DMA) level of 0.7785 this Monday morning.
There are no first-tier Australia data releases this week, hence the focus is on the monthly readings for US business and consumer confidence and the Fed minutes.
Macro data/events to watch out for
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
Australia |
00:30 GMT - NAB Business Conditions (Sep),
03:20 GMT - RBA's Debelle Speech
|
00:00 GMT - FOMC Member Kaplan Speech |
01:00 GMT - Consumer Inflation Expectations, |
00:00 GMT - RBA Financial Stability Review
02:00 GMT - China Trade Balance (Sep) |
United States |
- |
00:00 GMT - FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
18:00 GMT - FOMC Minutes |
12:30 GMT - Jobless Claims
13:30 GMT - US PPI,
14:15 GMT Brainard Speech and
14:30 GMT Powell Speech
|
12:30 GMT US Retail Sales
13:30 GMT US CPI
14:25 GMT Fed's Evans Speech
15:30 GMT Fed's Kaplan Speech
17:00 GMT Fed's Poweel Speech |
Technicals
- Falling channel - support seen at 0.7720-0.77 levels
- The downward sloping 50-MA likely to offer strong resistance
- Watch out for a potential bullish price RSI divergence
- The pair is closing in on 0.7740-0.77 (former resistance turned support)
- The 50-MA and 100-MA have bottomed out
- The pair is seen consolidating in the range of 0.77-0.79 in the short-term.
- The first sign that the pair has bottomed out would be - multiple closes above the 50-MA on the 4-hour chart (i.e. the 4-hour 50-MA bottoms out).
- On a weekly close below 0.77 would signal the continuation of the sell-off from the high of 0.8125. A convincing break above 2.4% on the US 10-yr treasury yield chart would open doors for a break below the 0.77 handle in the Aussie.
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