Market Overview

Technical Forecast for US and Euro Stock Markets



EuroStoxx held above the target of 2549 & the 2556 low on a second test in the afternoon. Very over sold in the short term so there is hope for a small bounce today to 2590 then 2611 targets. We could stretch to 2628 but this looks likely to be the limit with the daily & weekly picture so negative now. If we reach as far as 2645 this should be a good chance to enter or add to shorts. 
Most importantly was yesterday’s close below the 9 month up trend & the 100 day moving average. We have also now seen the 21 day cross the 55 day MA. All bearish confirmations of the down trend which should target major levels of 2476 then 2391 in the coming weeks. Below 2549 today however look for 2521/19 & quite possibly 2502/95.
Dax held resistance at 7690/00. In the very short term we are over sold so a small bounce is possible today to 7652 then 7692 resistance. We may stretch to 7725, possibly 7758 for a selling opportunity.  
Yesterday we closed below the 9 month up trend for the first time & we have the 21 day moving average about to cross the 55 day in another bearish confirmation after the double top this week. Long term targets are 7421 then 7197. For today, below 7587 our first target is 7559 then a test of Feb lows at 7536 & further good support at 7528. Watch for a bounce in this band today but a close below the 100 day moving average at 7492 signals continued heavy losses this week.
FTSE held on above 6206 as hoped as we look to test resistance at 6278. A push higher is likely to 6296 but we could stall here with the daily picture so negative. Further resistance at 6314 but above here we could reach for 6340.   
Good support at 6206 could hold if we break yesterday’s low. However a break of 6194 sees 6174 then our 6141/33 target. We could continue lower later in the week to 6107/00, possibly as far as 6089.
S&P held good support in the 1485/82 area & bounced as predicted to 1498 which held the high perfectly. Today we could retest 1498 & can push through for 1503 & possibly as far as 1508 with a top likely here. Today’s bounce should provide a nice selling opportunity with the daily picture deteriorating. Further confirmation today comes from the 9 day moving average crossing the 21 day.  
A break of 1480 however targets 1475/73 & if we continue lower through 1470 look for 1460/57.

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