Tesla Q3 EV Delivery Volumes Would Be In 440k-445k Range Amid Factory Downtimes: Analyst

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives expects Tesla Inc TSLA to announce its Q3 delivery numbers on Monday or Sunday night, with the Street eyeing quarterly EV unit demand. The analyst maintained an Outperform rating and a price target of $350

Despite high demand, the analyst sees Tesla achieving EV delivery volumes in the 440k-445k range due to longer-than-expected factory downtimes in Shanghai and Austin. 

This compares with the analyst's earlier estimate of 460k/465k, with 20k deliveries expected to shift to Q4.

Also Read: Tesla Analyst Sees No Stock Sell-Off Even After Slashing Q3 Delivery Estimates, Bear Asks If This Is 'High-School Cheerleading?'

The analyst also cites that Q3 deliveries over 440k would be viewed as 'good enough' by the Street.

Ives projects factory downtimes in full force during October and November and sees more factory downtimes in the coming year as Tesla ramps up its production and launches a new model.

The current turmoil within the UAW in Detroit is drawing more attention to Tesla as a possible domestic beneficiary amid this ongoing struggle, the analyst writes. 

The competition from the Detroit Big 3, seen as a long-term threat to Tesla's market dominance in the EV sector, may face negative consequences on the significant cost escalation anticipated when a deal is eventually reached with Fain and the UAW, says the analyst.

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Consequently, Ives lowered estimates for revenue to $25,648.7 million (from $26,738.0 million) for Q3 and $27,133.4 million (from $28,247.0 million) for Q4. 

Also, EPS estimates were reduced to $0.78 (from $0.86) for Q3 and $0.85 (from $0.89) for Q4. 

Price Action: Tesla shares are trading higher by 1.10% at $249.11 on the last check Friday.

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