Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday is being billed as a pivotal, "make-or-break" moment for the central bank's more dovish contingent.
This annual gathering of central bankers, economists, and financial leaders in Wyoming is one of the most closely watched events on the economic calendar, and this year's address is no exception.
Market Experts Are Widely Anticipating A "Conciliatory" Tone
The anticipation surrounding Powell’s speech has been fueled by a growing consensus among market analysts that the Fed is poised to ease its monetary policy.
According to Gary Black of The Future Fund, money markets are now pricing in an 84% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with expectations for two cuts by the end of the year. He says that Powell’s speech “could be make-or-break moment for a more dovish Fed.”
This sentiment persists despite a recent hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July. Similarly, Tom Lee of FundStrat has expressed his hope for a “conciliatory tone to rate cuts” from the Fed Chair.
Historical Market Reaction To Jackson Hole
Historically, the S&P 500’s performance in the week following the Jackson Hole symposium has been mixed, often marked by increased volatility as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s messaging.
According to analysis from Kevin Gordon of Schwab, citing Bloomberg Intelligence data, the index has gained an average of 0.4% in the week after the event since 2000.
2025 Theme To Highlight Transitions In Labor Markets
The theme for the 2025 symposium, which will take place from Aug. 21-23, is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”
This theme will guide the discussions and papers presented at the event, with a focus on how shifts in the labor market will impact the broader economy and monetary policy decisions. As the world watches, Powell’s speech against this backdrop will be scrutinized for any hints about the future direction of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s response to the evolving landscape.
The Jackson Hole symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has a long history of being a platform for major policy announcements. The event brings together a select group of around 120 attendees, including central bankers from around the world, academics, and government officials, to discuss pressing long-term economic issues.
Price Action
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell on Friday. The SPY was down 0.23% at $643.44, while the QQQ declined 0.44% to $577.34, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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