US Recession Risk Rises As Leading Economic Index Falls Again In May: 37 Declines In 39 Months Mark Worst Streak Since 1960

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index fell 0.1% month-over-month in May, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline and signaling intensifying recession risks for the U.S. economy.

What Happened: The index has declined in 37 of the last 39 months, representing one of the worst streaks on record since 1960, according to data shared by The Kobeissi Letter. The LEI has dropped at a 5% annualized rate over the past six months, falling below the threshold that historically signals an impending recession.

The index now sits 16% below its peak and has reached its lowest level in nine years. Historically, such prolonged LEI declines have preceded every U.S. recession since 1960.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon has issued multiple warnings about mounting economic threats. “I think that’s a likely outcome,” Dimon said when asked about recession prospects during a Fox Business interview following President Donald Trump‘s tariff announcements.

Why It Matters: Dimon warned of potential zero or negative growth ahead, predicting analyst forecasts for S&P 500 growth would fall from 5% to “zero and negative five probably the next month.” He also cautioned about risks gathering in the bond market, stating, “You’re going to see a crack in the bond market.”

However, CEO sentiment shows mixed signals. A recent Chief Executive survey of 277 CEOs found only 28% now foresee a recession, down from 46% in May. The survey showed 36% of CEOs expect modest economic growth this year, up from 25% in May.

Economist Peter Schiff has warned of a “worse financial crisis than 2008,” predicting stagflation as “inflation chickens that the Fed has been releasing for more than a decade are coming home to roost.” The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-4.50% while projecting inflation rising to 3.0% in 2025.

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