What Happened: Market-leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin BTC/USD dropped below $30,000 for the first time since January and was trading $29,975 at press time, losing 25.88% of its value over the past seven days.
In light of the continued sell pressure, Ki-Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics platform Crypto Quant said a Bitcoin bear market has now likely been confirmed.
I hate to say this, but it seems like the $BTC bear market confirmed.
— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) June 21, 2021
Too many whales are sending $BTC to exchanges. https://t.co/DgmLukP4NU pic.twitter.com/AWJ8oVSUkQ
Why It Matters: According to an on-chain indicator that measures Whale deposits to exchanges, the majority of this sell pressure comes from Bitcoin whales and not retail investors, which would arguably lead to much larger sell volumes.
However, Ki-Young Ju did note that a single indicator “can’t tell the future for sure,” and the crypto market is largely unpredictable.
“I'm just saying, this has been a pretty good indicator to determine a bull/bear market for me.”
In his view, if the Exchange Whale Ratio stays above 85%, then the market is likely to be bearish or fake bull.
“To be clear, I expect my $BTC bearish bias won't last long (maybe just a few weeks) because the market looks good in terms of supply/demand in the long term (e.g., Stablecoins ratio(USD) and SSR),” he added.
“So don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's over.”
What Else: Another indicator that confirms an impending downside for Bitcoin’s price is the BTC Death Cross which took place “at least five weeks ahead of schedule,” according to crypto trader Rekt Capital.
The #BTC Death Cross has already taken place on the 50 & 200 SMAs
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 22, 2021
Today it is also occurring on the 50 & 200 EMAs$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/eQPoE8SEm8 pic.twitter.com/f4PcyCk2tF
As he previously stated, this indicator has historically led to price drops in excess of 55%, which would mean a drop to a price level of $18,000.
Read also: A Technical Look At Bitcoin As Crypto Sells Off
Still, some analysts are optimistic about the outlook for Bitcoin. PlanB, who created the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Bitcoin price model, estimates that even in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by December 2021.
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