Crude Oil Stalling After Completing A Bullish Pattern

CLM14 completed an intraday bullish harmonic pattern, is it enough to find a noteworthy bounce?  When looking at an intraday perspective view, this offers a couple of beneficial things to a trader, one, it offers day traders setups to trade off of and two, can offer clarity to a bigger picture scenario.

I like to use a day chart for the bigger view, some traders prefer weekly or even monthly charts, I can’t emphasize this enough, trading is a very personal endeavor and it is the responsibility of each trader to fine tune their own methodology or means of determining when to enter a trade and how to manage it.  There are countless educators, mentors and systems so it does take some investigative work to find what clicks for the individual.

The first day chart contains my notes for the bigger picture that I used for this week’s harmonic scenarios, the second day chart shows that there really hasn’t been a resolution for the week’s perspective because price is held up in a range between two moving averages I have on the chart (blue is the 50 ema and red is the 200 sma).  Until price can aggressively move beyond this consolidation the opposing emerging patterns are at a standstill.

The intraday chart, in this case I’m using an STRenko 16 bar size shows the largest of the patterns, colored cyan (note the fibs, text, and triangles are color coordinated) is a completed Gartley.  Valid reversal patterns have an ideal minimum retracement target of 38.2% and these patterns dream of a retracement of 100% or more.  A little dramatic?  Perhaps it’s more the dream of the witness of harmonic patterns unfolding.

The ideal minimum retracement target for this Gartley is 100.77, yet price has failed to reach this target.  Instead of having a quick response to the completion of this bullish pattern, it started consolidating and formed at least two opposing emerging patterns that is telling the story of that daily price action in between those moving averages.

The notes on the chart display the harmonic pattern targets and the initial emphasis is on the levels marked “Sig Lvl- Line in Sand” because these represent a region that can eliminate one of the patterns (remember the patterns are color coordinated).

If price pushes above 100.44 the probability of testing the ideal minimum retracement target increases, a hold above 100.44 has the ideal target of 104.06, and the scaling points along the way are the noted fib levels.

If price cannot initially hold above 99.79, the initial support test target is 99.39, below there has the line in the sand level of 98.74, a break down there describes that Gartley as merely a means to an end while in route to lower targets, namely 94.14 and scaling points at the cyan fibs and emphasis at the large green zone I call the bullish Garfly.

The main purpose of showing the intraday scenarios is to show that when a smaller pattern plays out, it will help determine which daily level of 103.82 or 98.37 has the higher probability of being tested.  Look for confluence of intraday targets and daily targets, here’s an example:  If the intraday Bullish Garfly completes at the ideal target of 96.26, this will bring price close to the daily level of 96.04.