Aussie Could Head Even Lower, Gold Rallies From Below 1200

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Equities: The SEP13 emini SP 500 is down 3.25 points today to 1603.25. We have a high volume area at 1607, which is our key pivot level for the short term. We have a near term upside target at 1620. The market will obviously have to show it can hold above 1607 first. If the market can’t manage to stay above 1607, we look for 1595 to be hit again, then possibly 1587. We believe the market does not really know where the next 50 point move will be, up or down. The market is much more concerned now with the effects of a potential FED tapering of stimulus. We believe the market may gravitate towards the 1600 level until the forthcoming monthly jobs report in July.

Bonds: Speaking of the jobs report, we believe this report has potential to have a big impact on the bond market. The SEP13 30 yr bond futures are down 6 ticks today to 135’13, kind of a quiet morning. The market dipped in the morning but found buyers on some minor weak economic data this morning. Similar to the equity markets, we believe the big moves in the bonds will be on hold until the next jobs report in early July. Our key pivot level for this market is 135’02. If the bonds rally, we have our next upside target at 137’02. Again, we believe the market could be quiet until the jobs report.

Commodities: AUG13 gold hit an overnight low of $1179, and now is having a decent-sized rally this morning up to $1217. We do not have any more technical targets to be reached in the short term on the downside, we believe the downside move is complete for now, and we believe gold will be supported in the short term at the $1200 level, and look for the market to rally further to $1231. USDA agricultural reports came out this morning, and corn, soybeans, and wheat are all down today. AUG13 crude oil is up slightly to $97.34. This market has been extremely resilient as of late, and we would not be surprised to see an approach of the key $100 level. However for the short term, we have a key pivot level of $97, and our next upside target is $98.70. We would not be surprised to see this $98.70 level hit.

Currencies: The US dollar index is up 34 ticks today to 84.50, and the Yen, Aussie, Pound, and Euro are all down today. The Aussie is down the most of these 4. The Aussie is down 132 ticks to 90.93, or down -1.41%. We believe this currency is susceptible to more losses, and our next target is 89.90. We have the 91.80-92.00 as a key resistance zone for the Aussie.