The Man Who Called Every Crypto Cycle Since 2017 Just Revealed His Blueprint for the $250K Bitcoin Run—And Why This Time Is Different

After building and selling a media empire for over $150 million, Ran Neer didn’t need to chase the next big thing. Yet since 2016, he’s been all-in on crypto, hosting the world’s first televised crypto show and building CryptoBanter into what he calls “the most profitable community in the world.” Now, with Bitcoin trading near all-time highs, Neer is making a bold prediction that could reshape how investors think about this cycle.

The Four-Year Cycle Clock Is Ticking

Neer’s analysis centers on crypto’s historically predictable four-year cycles. Previous bull runs peaked around December 2017 and November 2021, suggesting this cycle could climax as early as November 2024. If he’s right, we’re entering “the most aggressive part of the bull market” right now.

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His price target? Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000 before year-end in an aggressive, short cycle scenario. But here’s the twist: Neer secretly hopes for a longer, more sustained bull market that could push Bitcoin even higher—potentially $250,000 to $300,000.

“Market tops are pretty simple to spot,” Neer explains, pointing to increased retail participation, surging YouTube engagement, and altcoins outpacing Bitcoin as key indicators. When the altcoin leverage ratio equals or exceeds Bitcoin’s, that’s typically the signal that euphoria has peaked.

Policy Tailwinds Creating Perfect Storm

Several macroeconomic factors are aligning to fuel this potential run. The recent $4 trillion debt ceiling increase means significantly more money entering the economy this year. Combined with potential interest rate cuts if Trump avoids new tariffs, this creates what Neer calls “a very very very good scenario for risk assets like Bitcoin.”

A weakening US dollar from these policies would provide additional rocket fuel for crypto markets, as global investors flee traditional currencies for digital assets.

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The Altcoin Game Has Changed Forever

But Neer warns that this altcoin season “is not going to be the same as every other year.” The sheer number of altcoins now makes it “almost impossible” to lift the entire market like in previous cycles.

Instead, he sees the market segmenting into three distinct categories:

1. Bitcoin as the foundation
2. Institutional/DeFi narrative coins that fit Wall Street’s playbook—starting with Layer 1s like Ethereum, Solana, and Sui, followed by decentralized exchanges and lending protocols
3. “Dead zombie coins” that won’t participate in the rally
4. Memecoin casinos where retail investors chase 10x returns and dopamine hits

The Portfolio That Could Capture Maximum Upside

Neer’s “conservative” allocation strategy reflects this new reality:

• 20% Bitcoin
• 25% crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy MSTR, Coinbase COIN, and Robinhood HOOD—which have actually outperformed most tokens
• Heavy allocation to Layer 1s and decentralized exchanges, which he considers “relatively safe” since trading will always happen

His specific DEX picks include Hyperliquid, Radium (with “easy 5x potential”), and Aerodrome on Coinbase’s Base network, currently trading at significant discounts from previous highs.

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The Tortoise Beats the Hare

Perhaps Neer’s most valuable insight comes from years of watching investors cycle through boom and bust. His “tortoise and hare” analogy cuts to the heart of crypto investing psychology.

The “hares” chase every shiny object—memecoins, AI agents, the latest Layer 1. They appear to win during the race, flashing millions in unrealized gains, but typically get “blown up” and disappear by cycle’s end.

The “tortoises” stick to consistent theses, ignore hot narratives, and focus on proven value captures. They make less noise but keep more money.

“Crypto is not about how much money you make,” Neer emphasizes. “It’s about how much money you end up keeping.”

With Bitcoin potentially heading toward $250,000, that lesson might prove more valuable than any price prediction.

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