Another AM High That Didn't Hold As Month-End Currents Swirl

Collective Intelligence!

Raise your hand if you like volatility! Whoa!!! The markets have really been jumping all over the place as the first quarter winds down. However, Chicago still can’t shake the wintertime blues … another dusting of snow this morning made us want to be on spring break too.

Snippets: And it starts … German business confidence fell for the first time in five months as companies assess the risks to trade from escalating European Union sanctions against Russia. If this keeps up, President Obama will have to pitch his collective sanctions message a bit better than the Obamacare health insurance message …

Premarket support: mts2 (06:38) ECB’s Weidmann says quantitative easing not out of the question –http://reut.rs/1dJW2Am  Along with Fed Governor Plosser, a known hawk appearing on CNBC for an hour –  joining the Fed drumbeat that there has been change in FOMC game plan regardless of how some interpreted Fed Chair Yellen’s presser.

william_blount (07:49) market will largely be determined from here to MONDAY by HEDGE FUND MANAGER AND INSTITUTIONAL BOOKS vs YEAR END — EOM AND EOQ–in your face– the battle for 1850 cash -with yr end close 1848 and change and yr end high 1849.44 = DUH …

Today started with 210k ESM and 400 SPM traded on Globex, ESM trading range was 1858.75 – 1848.00. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1841.50 – 1866.00 before settling at 1849.40, down 7.6  handles. Case-Shiller housing data showed prices in 20 U.S. cities increased 13.2% from January 2013 vs the median projection of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg calling for a 13.3% advance.

Today’s pit session gapped 9.5 handles higher to 1858.80 – 1859.00 and popped up to 1864.30 by 9:11 following the much better than expected consumer confidence data checking in at 82.3 vs exp 78.6 while new home sales dipped to a five-month low of 440k. From there it was Katy bar the door as the equities came for sale, flipping the morning bulls, triggering sell programs and stops before printing an intraday low of 1848.00 by 11:28 in above average volume. william_blount (09:55) 5th time since March 7 bulls have puked on an a.m. high — gap and crap or first hr high. Once again, the high-beta momentum stocks were under pressure during the decline. We did not see any news that led to the reversal, but as we noted before, the month/quarter end is approaching and the markets are susceptible to some profit-taking and asset rotation. Also, the markets remain a little thin due to … spring break and the air pockets as we continue to chop around in the same range.

Tomorrow we hear more about the bank stress tests, [MS], [GS], [BAC] soft in front of the news leading the sector’s respite today. While others added their spot on analysis – stockmarketwhisperer (09:02) eh.. why would cons. confidence be up like that? sell the news. william_blount (09:02) internals should drop if you spring a leak. Barry (09:03) because people are insane. mts2 (09:10) chatter – Draghi at 11:00CT will be closely watched due to ECB’s Weidmann’s pre-mrkt commentary “quantitative easing not out of the question.” Also, watching for Weidmann’s 11:30 for confirmation of earlier comment. Here we go again:DRAGHI SAYS ECB READY TO TAKE ADDITIONAL MEASURES IF NEEDED. Following both Draghi and Weidman comments the equities found some footing during the lunch hours as volume backed off considerably while the S&P traded back up to 1861 area by 1:11.

Kathy lunch video http://bit.ly/1ffQzS4

The afternoon session was uneventful as the equities traded sideways to lower in light volume. TheMrTopStep imbalance Meter, MiM, showed a modest sell side imbalance $200M before climbing to $700M going into the cash close. The futures traded 1858.30 on the cash close before settling at 1859.30, up 9.9 handles on the day.

Eco calendar: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Posted yesterday: Negative profit outlooks for the first quarter have been increasing; Thomson Reuters data showed that 108 negative outlooks have been issued so far by S&P 500 companies, while only 16 gave positive ones. The ratio of negative outlooks to positive ones remains below that of the fourth quarter, which was the worst since at least the first quarter of 1996, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Posted since last Thursday and held once again as this morning’s intraday high was 1864.30:william_blount (09:16) where do BULLS SEIZE CONTROL OF THE CHART? Roger_S (09:16) ES 1866.25 – or as we lovingly call it  - “The Y E L L”. This is where the index was trading when the FOMC decision was announced. Also, following Fed Chair Yellen’s presser comment, regarding interest rates – the debate continues as to the Fed message. There are plenty of traders and investors that continue to believe the Fed remains dovish. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen caused a stir last week when she suggested the central bank might start raising short-term interest rates a little sooner than investors were expecting. Now – the Fed Governors are downplaying her misinterpreted comment.