Good Friday, Bad Monday?

The markets have rallied and job growth has gone for the ride. They say for the US economy to get back full on track the US will have to produce 360k jobs a month for an extended period of time. Today's jobs numbers are expected to show fewer people were put to work in March. According to Thomson Reuters, 203,000 jobs were added in March, down from 227,000 in February. While they say 200,000 is still a good number, we fear anything lower could be an upset for the markets.

We have seen this act before:  The jobs number is set to be released at 7:30 CT on a day when the stock market is closed but the bonds and currencies will be open until 10:15 CT. And we have seen a lot of surprises on these days also. Whatever happens, there won't be much anyone can do about it until Sunday night.

Our view:
If the non-farm payroll number comes in inline then this will be a very short day. If it doesn't it's going to be a very long weekend for many. Because of this we do not recommend trying to trade the “number.” A very well-known trader once said to me that as traders we are supposed to trade up to the event, not the event, and today is one of those days. For over 100 years the markets have closed on Good Friday, and that brings us to what happens on Mondays. Historically the Monday after Good Friday tends to see the markets trade down. Since 1928 the NASDAQ has averaged a loss 61% of the time and the Dow and S&P are down 55% of the time. Our view is to stay OUT!

For today:
It's 5:30 am and the SPM is up 3 handles, crude is 103.14, down 17 cents and the EC is up 6 at 1.3074.
In Asia 6 of 11 markets closed lower.In Europe 7 out of 12 markets are trading lower.The main headline this morning is “S&P Futures Trade Higher Before Jobs Numbers.” Today's economic calendar includes the March unemployment numbers and consumer credit.

VOLUME:  1.53mil ESM and 7.5k SPM traded
SPREADS: 16 SPM/SPZ spreads traded
FV: S&P , NASDAQ   CASH MARKET CLOSED

VIDEO: 4-5-2012 Closing Print with Options Profits youtu.be/bEHhOwCP5Cg

CME Globex® Good Friday Holiday Schedule
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2012-good-friday.pdf

THURSDAY WRAP-UP

Thursday started with 397k ESM and 3k ESM traded on Globex, trading range 1397.75 – 1384.00 / Wednesdays range 1398.30 – 1389.00. Jobless claims 357 vs survey 355 with an 4k upward revision of previous month.  RTH's opening range 1389.00 – 1388.80, traded an early low of 1388.00 and trended higher through the mid-morning marking the high of 1397.00 by 10:15CT.   mts2 (08:49:16): above 1393 area and could see some shorts cover to 1397 area  william blount (08:51:47): DAMN GOOD JOB BY THE BULLS ON THE spill //  1389 PRIOR CLOSE, TODAY OPG , A.M. LOW YESTERDAY –KIND MAKES ME THINK THE 1388 SPOT IS CRITICAL //  MID day resistance and p.m. magnet 1394 spot   /  kinda mkaes me think its critical too  //  NOW-the bulls NEED NORMAL, they NEED TO GET PRICE ABOVE THE 1401.7 WEEK;Y PIVOT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A NORMAL s2L // BEARS CONVERT 89 , 88 SPOT , OR THIS DAY IS DONE , STICK A FORK IN IT. After trading 1397, the spoos slid down to test 1393 area as many traders were stretching their legs on the commute home for the holiday weekend. Around 12:45 a small sell program hit pushing the SPM back down to retest the opening range before bouncing back to 1393 area and sat. At 2:30 1393.50 trade, the closing imbalance showed buy side 28 of the 30 DOW and $740M to buy in the broader market. That is moderate to big imbalance, but the indices did not react in kind. It may have been the wise guys had a, um, hunch and bought the previous bounce from 1389.50 and then the spoos did the upward grind into the imbalance – then sold it. Either way the spoos sold off 3 handles as 1392.70 traded on the cash close and traded 1390.00 before settling at 1390.20.  $740M buy imbalance, bears scream SOOLLLD… Employment data on deck.

What is left to say – Happy Easter and Passover to y'all!  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAySvgsKcx8

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by mrtopstep.com copyright 2012

MTS video http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/04/4-5-2012-rich-canlione/
DANNY THE ROCKSTAR http://www.livestream.com/daytraderrockstar/video?clipId=pla_79ce62f6-deee-47c3-b81a-5062977a2159&utm_source=lslibrary&utm_medium=ui-thumb
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MrTopStep Charts “A PINCH & POTENTIAL 2TOP 1415 MATCHING WEEKLY HIGHS” http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/04/mrtopstep-charts-a-pinch-potential-2top-1415-matching-weekly-highs/

MrTopStep Talks Benzinga Radio WrapUp   http://tinyurl.com/7hk2cgo

Trouble selling? Is this you? Read Art of Selling http://explosiveoptions.net/the-art-of-selling/

How to read a central bank: expands its balance sheet, bullish or bearish? http://econ.st/zpxAPE

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CONTRIBUTORS' CORNER

SPX CHARTS

Roger Volz, BGC

SP 500 Futures 60 min Chart: Globex high 1397.60  / Globex lows 1384.20-1385.00. First overhead grouping at 1391.00-1392.40

60 min signals yesterday saw partial  ST OS < 1391.75…today's levels lowered 1381.10

15 min signals: VST OB > 1413.00 from 1419.50 ; VST OS < 1385.00 issued at 6:00am currently corrected ; next read < 1381.50

60 MIN

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MTS NEWS & OBSERVATIONS:

From The Street.com
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TheStreet TST and MrTopStep have announced that they forged a relationship to bring OptionsProfits and MrTopStep premium subscribers a unique experience. OptionsProfits — a premium subscription service published by TheStreet, a leading digital financial media company that distributes its content through online, social media, tablet and mobile channels — is adding to our ability to leverage the relationships we have forged through various trading platforms and exchanges. Together with MrTopStep, we will now bring you proprietary content, actionable trading ideas and trader insight directly from the floor of the CME Group in Chicago.

“OptionsProfits is dedicated to providing our subscribers with a thoughtful flow of investment ideas and educational content provided by leading experts, partners and relationships,” said Jill Malandrino, editor of OptionsProfits. “Our partnership with MrTopStep is helping to bring this commitment to life by expanding our offerings into the futures market and broaden our scope of educational offerings.”

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MrTopStep & Benzinga Wednesday WrapUp Radio:

http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/02/mrtopstep-talks-benzinga-radio-wrapup-9/

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR

http://www.mrtopstep.com/economic-calendar/

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