For many months, the most likely outcome of the 2024 presidential election based on polls and betting markets has been a rematch of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who faced off against each other in the 2020 presidential election.
The most recent betting odds are reinforcing this idea, revealing some unexpected contenders and underperformers among the potential 2024 presidential candidates.
What Happened: The 2024 election has been seen as a potential three-person race between Biden, Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for many months. With DeSantis hitting record-low ratings in election polls, betting odds have taken notice of his decline.
The latest betting odds also come after the first Republican primary debate, which saw Trump sit out and eight GOP hopefuls take the stage. Betting odds have also been updated to reflect a fourth indictment received by Trump adding to his list of federal charges.
U.S. residents can’t actively bet with online sportsbooks on who the next president will be. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings Inc DKNG are live in Ontario and offer betting for residents of Canada. Foreign sportsbooks in Europe and other markets may also offer betting on the 2024 election.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told Benzinga earlier this year that he hoped someday political betting on big races such as president will be allowed in the U.S.
“It’s more popular than you might think outside the U.S., a lot of people around the world, particularly in our neighbor in Canada, pay attention,” Robins said.
Robins said DraftKings would work with regulators to get election betting approved for states that offer legalized betting.
“I think if it were in the U.S., it would be even bigger. I don’t see any particular reason not to allow for election betting in the U.S.”
Here’s a look at the latest betting odds from Bet365 as provided by Covers with odds from Aug. 24, 2023, along with previous odds from the months of June 2023, May 2023, April 2023, February 2023 and November 2022.
Outside the national race, Bet365 also listed odds for the Republican nomination, with the following three heavily favored over the rest of the field:
Trump: -275
Ramaswamy: +500
DeSantis: +800
Related Link: DeSantis Appoints New Campaign Manager In Face Of Dismal 2024 Election Polls, Will It Trigger A Comeback
Betting Odds Of Winning the 2024 Presidential Election
| Name | Aug. 24, 2023 | Aug. 2 2023 | June 2023 | May 2023 | April 2023 | February 2023 | November 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +150 | +162 | +150 | +150 | +175 | +250 | +550 |
| Donald Trump | +200 | +200 | +250 | +240 | +250 | +350 | +330 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +900 | +1600 | +6600 | +8000 | +10,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Gavin Newsom | +1200 | +1000 | +2000 | +3300 | +4000 | +2000 | +1400 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +1600 | +900 | +1200 | +1400 | +10,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Ron DeSantis | +1600 | +1200 | +450 | +450 | +350 | +300 | +225 |
| Michelle Obama | +1600 | +2500 | +2800 | +3300 | +4000 | +3500 | +3500 |
| Kamala Harris | +3300 | +3300 | +3000 | +2800 | +2500 | +1800 | +1200 |
| Tim Scott | +4000 | +5000 | +6600 | +6600 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nikki Haley | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +3300 | +3500 | +2000 | +2800 |
| Mike Pence | +8000 | +5000 | +6600 | +5000 | +6000 | +3500 | +2000 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +10,000 | +10,000 | +8000 | +4000 | +3300 | +3500 | +2500 |
Why It’s Important: Biden continued to lead the way in the latest betting odds and matched his best ranking at +150, gaining from +162 reported several weeks ago.
One of the biggest gainers on the list was Vivek Ramaswamy. Seen as a potential winner from the first Republican debate, Ramaswamy now hits odds of +900 for the presidency and also improved odds of becoming the Republican nominee.
Ramaswamy is now ranked third in the betting odds, moving up from sixth several weeks ago. The biotech entrepreneur had long odds of +6600 to win the presidency back in June before surging in election polls and the most recent betting odds.
After moving up in the rankings several weeks ago, Robert Kennedy Jr. dropped back down to +1600, ranking tied for fifth, down from third place in the last reported odds by Benzinga.
Benzinga recently reported that Kennedy is seeing support growing among Republicans, but still facing large odds to beat Biden for the Democratic Party nomination.
Ranking fourth in the betting odds is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who had not officially declared a campaign for the election. Many experts see Newsom joining the race among Democratic candidates.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis continued to fall down the betting odds rankings with odds of +1600. After having odds of +450 or better in recent months and ranking third, DeSantis ranks fourth.
Despite having numerous candidates in the Republican field for the GOP nomination, Trump continued to dominate polls. The latest Morning Consult GOP poll found 58% of Republican voters would select Trump for the party’s vote currently, giving him a 44-point lead over DeSantis.
The Republican odds listed by Bet365 assign around a 77% chance that Trump would win the party’s nomination.
On the prediction marketplace, PredictIt, Biden ranked first at 44 cents, followed by Trump at 30 cents and Ramaswamy at 9 cents. On PredictIt, the winner pays out $1 for each market. After months of ranking third with a price of 20 cents or more, DeSantis now ranked fifth at 7 cents.
For the GOP nomination, Trump led the way at 65 cents, followed by DeSantis at 15 cents, Ramaswamy at 15 cents, Haley at 7 cents and Scott at 4 cents. In June, Trump was listed at 55 cents, compared to 32 cents for DeSantis.
Among Democrat candidates on PredictIt, Biden was listed at 71 cents, with Newsom at 16 cents.
Read Next: Vivek 'Da Vek' Ramaswamy: The 2024 Presidential Candidate Who Might Just Rap His Inauguration
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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