After an underwhelming contest for a Triple Crown in 2021, hopes are renewed this year with a fine crop of three-year-old colts who have the potential to make horse racing history.
As usual, the focus on handicapping the winner of the Kentucky Derby will be on the winners, or top competitors, of the Derby prep races that have taken place over the past few months.
The Favorites: With a jam-packed field of 20 horses, the forecasters of the morning line have it as a two-horse race. In my opinion, Epicenter, whose trainer is North America’s all-time leading trainer, Steve Asmussen, should be the heavy favorite, but it should be noted not one of Asmussens’s numerous victories has come in the “Run for the Roses.”
Moreover, Asmussen’s drought could easily end with Epicenter. He was the winner of the Louisiana Derby, which was run at nearly the same distance as the Kentucky Derby ( 1 3/16 miles vs. 1 ¼ mile respectively). In addition to this, he won the Risen Star Stakes in nearly wire-to-wire fashion.
While the winner of the Louisiana Derby, a race that has been around almost as long as the Kentucky Derby, has looked very impressive in his last few starts, he is not my top choice. The reason is that over the years, a victory at the Louisiana Derby hasn't translated into many winners of the Kentucky Derby. In fact, only three horses since 1894 have parlayed the win in Louisiana to a victory at Churchill Downs, with one of them being Country House, who, in 2019, was moved from second to first, due to the disqualification of Maximum Security.
The other co-favorite has my attention: Zandon.
The winner of the Blue Grass Stakes has proved he can handle major traffic. This was evidenced in his debut, when he finished second to Mo Donegal in the Remsen, after racing for a majority of the race three-wide. In addition, his jockey, Flavien Platt, navigated him from the back of the pack, to circle the field in the stretch, and win the Blue Grass Stakes with room to spare. Platt has to be careful not to get shuffled back too much from the start.
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Longshots: Cyberknife snuck into the field by winning the Arkansas Derby. Prior to that race, he competed against much inferior company at shorter distances than the grueling 1 ¼ mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. Along these lines, there's nothing in his pedigree to indicate he will muster the stamina to successfully rally all the way from the 16-post position.
White Abarrio, the winner of the Florida Derby, was originally purchased for $7,500 at the OBS winter sale in 2020. Similar to Cyberknife, he has the bloodlines of a sprinter, which may not bode well from the number 15 post position at the unfamiliar distance.
Based on the morning line is another longshot–the winner of the Wood Memorial, Mo Donegal. The two things working against the colt is that there hasn't been a winner of the Wood to replicate that feat in the Derby since 2000. Also, only eight horses out of the last 87 with the number 1 post position were victorious at Churchill, the last one being Ferdinand in 1986; the most recent horse to finish in the money from the rail was Risen Star in 1988.
My Longshot: An enticing longshot, and where my wager will be, is on the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Taiba. Although the colt's impressive victory in that race was against only five other ponies, he certainly looked like he had more in the tank when he crossed the finish line.
Although this is just his third lifetime start, being fresh might overcome his lack of racing experience. More importantly, the colt has the genes to go the distance. His sire, Gun Runner, was third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby and turned out to be a formidable stallion. His dam, Needmore Flattery, was a lifetime winner of 17 races, with many of them coming at the 1 ⅛ mile distance.
Betting the colt across the board (win, place, and show) may offer a nice consolation prize if the colt finishes in the money.
Combos: With potential odds of 10-1 or better, Taiba on top, with either of the two favorites, could yield a worthy payout. In addition, if Tabia finishes directly behind either favorite, the Exacta payout may be respectable. With a 20-horse field, I will take a pass on any trifecta wagering.
May the horse be with you, and enjoy your Mint Juleps.
Photo: Don Sniegowski, Flickr
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