For months, former President Donald Trump has dominated election polls of Republican candidates vying to be the party's nominee in the 2024 presidential election.
While Trump still leads in national polls and state-specific polls, several polls have found that his lead is declining and another candidate, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, is gaining momentum.
What Happened: A recent Morning Consult national poll of Republican voters found Trump with a 52-point lead over his competition, with 65% of the vote. Following Trump in the poll were Ron DeSantis at 13% and Haley at 11%.
Trump has maintained a lead of 50 points or more for several weeks in the national poll.
However, state-specific polls have painted a different picture. Early voting states show Trump's lead is shrinking while Haley gains momentum.
A new Emerson College poll of registered voters in New Hampshire shows Trump with a lead, but it is shrinking and not over the 50% majority level. The poll found voters would vote the following if the New Hampshire primary was held today.
- Donald Trump: 44%
- Nikki Haley: 28%
- Chris Christie: 12%
- Ron DeSantis: 7%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 4%
The poll was conducted before the announcement by Christie that he was dropping out. That could put his 12% of support up for grabs. The new poll shows that, in New Hampshire, GOP voters are more likely to vote for one of the other four candidates than for Trump.
Trump received 49% of the vote in New Hampshire in the same poll back in August 2023 and November 2023.
Haley went from 4% in the August poll to 18% in the November poll to 28% today.
Christie saw his support increase from 9% in November to 12%. DeSantis and Ramaswamy saw slight movement of one to two basis points from the August and November polls to today. In the poll, 52% of Christie supporters named Haley as their second choice, suggesting she could pick up additional support.
Related Link: Haley Vs. DeSantis: Experts Break Down Fifth Republican Debate’s Winner, What It Means For 2024 Election, Battle With Trump
Why It's Important: Haley recently received an endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu that could help boost her strength in the state.
New Hampshire’s Republican primary will be held on Jan. 23. A recent CNN poll showed Trump with a narrow 7-point lead for the Republican race with 39% of support within the state. Haley has 32%.
While it's a long way to go until the Republican presidential candidate is decided, the early deciding states could be increasingly important given Trump's dominant lead in national polls.
Many political experts see more candidates dropping out of the race if Trump wins the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Haley's home state of South Carolina could be one of her best chances to win. That, along with a strong early showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, could lead to more donors and endorsements pouring in.
A recent Emerson College poll found Trump to have a 29-point lead over Haley in South Carolina. The state's former governor Haley fared well among Independent voters in the poll, which could suggest a closer race.
There are also rumors that DeSantis could drop out after the early states if he is unable to post wins.
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