J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew R. Boss reiterated an Underweight rating on the shares of Six Flags Entertainment Corp (NYSE:FUN) with a price forecast of $46.00.
FUN’s fourth-quarter EBITDA fell approximately 30% short of the Street’s estimate of $190 million.
The miss was driven by both revenue and cost discrepancies, with revenue increasing 3.6% year-over-year to $687 million, below the Street’s forecast of $704 million. According to the analyst, higher total costs resulted in an EBITDA margin of 19.0%, well below the Street’s 27.0% estimate.
On attendance, FUN reported a total of 10.7 million visitors, marking a 6.2% year-over-year increase, slightly missing the Street’s projected 6.5% growth.
Management explained that the 576,000 fewer visits at legacy Cedar Fair were due to a calendar shift, resulting in “core” Cedar Fair attendance growth of 8%.
Management reported positive early demand trends for fiscal year 2025, with a 2% year-over-year increase in attendance for the first two months.
Also Read: Plug Power’s High-Stakes Move: Executives Can Take Up To 75% Of Pay In Company Stock
The analyst highlighted that management reiterated its target of 55 million attendees by 2027, describing 2025 as a volume-focused year that will contribute to long-term growth.
The company expects a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2027, with 2025 likely below this average, while 2026 and 2027 should see higher growth, driven by ongoing investments to enhance the guest experience.
Management emphasized that in 2025, its primary focus is driving volume, which often involves being less aggressive on pricing, though price increases will still be considered.
As a result, growth in admissions per capita is expected to face downward pressure, likely resulting in negative year-over-year growth, compared to the Street’s forecast of +0.8%.
While the combined entity of FUN, with 42 parks, including 27 amusement parks and 15 water parks, is well-positioned within the regional theme park sector, benefiting from geographic diversification and the opportunity to enhance the guest experience, the analyst notes these advantages are already reflected in the current valuation.
Price Action: FUN shares are trading higher by 2.35% at $44.38 at the last check Friday.
Read Next:
Image via Shutterstock.
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
