Stage Set for Showdown Today on the Korean Peninsula

South Korea delayed live-fire artillery drills from the island of Yeonpyeong planned for the weekend due to weather constraints, but vowed Monday morning in Seoul to go ahead with them later in the day. Residents of the island were told to take shelter in bunkers, and the military said they would proceed with the exercise as soon as the fog cleared. The exercise comes just under a month after similar drills conducted by South Korea from the island, in a hotly contested area off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, provoked a rash military response from its North Korean counterparts. On November 23, two South Korean marines and two civilians were killed by artillery fire from the North while several others were injured. The U.N. Security Council came together today in a meeting lasting 8-1/2 hours to address the situation on the Korean peninsula, but as usual, came away divided. China and Russia continued to toe the line on the issue, set on maintaining an ambiguous stance in which North Korea was not explicitly laid to blame for the current crisis. This policy echoes China's responses to the sinking of the South Korean navy vessel Cheonan back in March and the November attack on Yeonpyeong by North Korean artillery. Western diplomats from the U.S., France, and Britain came away nonplussed by the Council's inability to reach an agreement on how to proceed with regards to the crisis unfolding on the Korean peninsula. Earlier this month, North Korea warned of "catastrophic consequences" if Seoul went ahead with the drills, words that, at least coming from Pyongyang, are not at all unfamiliar to the international community. Meanwhile, both China and Russia have called for "maximum restraint" from both sides and have urged South Korea to cancel the drills, fearing they will only escalate tensions on the peninsula. However, with strong support from Washington and mounting political pressure in South Korea to deal with the Northern provocations, Seoul is nearly certain not to respond to such statements with acquiescence. Washington defended the drills at the Security Council meeting. U.S. diplomat Susan Rice told the Council, "These defensive exercises pose no danger to North Korea and threaten no North Korean lives." This follows increased U.S. military activity in the region in recent weeks since the November 23 attack, including massive drills conducted separately with South Korea and Japan as well as a three-party meeting in Washington with the two countries to discuss the rising tensions. Political pressure in South Korea has skyrocketed since the November 23 attack. The South Korean defense minister resigned as a result and was replaced by a hard-line former marine who promised decisive action in response to additional provocations from the North, and public outcry in Seoul prompted a wide-reaching review of the nation's defense policy. The domestic political situation in South Korea raises the stakes for the current administration in Seoul and will force them to provide a strong response to future aggression from the North Korean military. North Korea knows all of this. It also has the recent Wikileaks revelations out of China, which saw U.S. diplomatic cables quoting Chinese officials as supportive of a unified Korea under Seoul's control, to think about. While China continues to play the neighbor and closest friend to Pyongyang, as evidenced by its actions today at the Security Council meeting vetoing a statement laying blame on North Korea for recent attacks, it is clear that international pressure is mounting on China to deal with North Korea as well. As pressure ratchets up on China while the rest of the world condemns North Korea, it will make it difficult for them to come out in support of Pyongyang following further aggression by the North. Despite North Korea's warnings, continued provocations on their part would not seem to be in their best interest. However, some argue that this is a recurring theme. The South Korean won fell Monday to its lowest point against the dollar since the November 23 attack while South Korean stocks and bonds followed suit. As we enter a traditionally low-volume holiday week, we could see some major volatility in Korean markets should Pyongyang indeed decide to react with military action to South Korea's drills on Monday. Follow me on Twitter @matthewboesler